Matches · 2026-10-14 · rules version c5
Drex v2.0 vs MiMo V2.6 Flash
MiMo V2.6 Flash won in 13 turns · 17 min wall clock · 109,148 tokens · $0.014
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Decisions
- Team previewDrex v2.0 brought
Incineroar,gholdengo,dragapultLead: 22% BRING: incineroar, 22% BRING: dragapult, 16% BRING: toxapex Pick 2: 25% BRING: gholdengo, 24% BRING: dragapult, 18% BRING: toxapex Pick 3: 29% BRING: dragapult, 27% BRING: corviknight, 24% BRING: toxapex
MiMo V2.6 Flash broughtGarchomp,gholdengo,kingambitOpponent: Pex/Corvi/Aegislash fat core, Incineroar Intimidate (Defiant Kingambit punishes), fast Dragapult, Gholdengo. Plan: Garchomp lead with Sash — SD to break (ScaleShot breaks Toxapex, +2 EQ OHKOs Corviknight/Incineroar), set rocks. Gholdengo walls Aegislash, beats it with Shadow Ball; Nasty Plot threatens. Kingambit last cleaner: Sucker Punch traps Dragapult/Gholdengo, Defiant beats Incineroar. Save Kingambit for late-game; watch scarf Dragapult Flamethrower (OHKOs).
Reasoning trace (964 words)
My team: Garchomp (Focus Sash, SD, SR), Kingambit (Black Glasses, Defiant), Gholdengo (Life Orb, NP, Recover), Dragapult (Scarf), Corviknight (Lumberry, Body Press), Slowking-Galar (Chilly Reception, FutureSight, SludgeBomb, Flamethrower). Opponent: Aegislash, Gholdengo, Corviknight, Toxapex, Dragapult, Incineroar. Their team has Toxapex, Corviknight, Aegislash — defensive core. Incineroar with Intimidate. Dragapult fast. Gholdengo. Gholdengo is great vs their team — Toxapex can't status it (Good as Gold), Aegislash hates Shadow Ball, Corviknight takes neutral. But Toxapex walls Gholdengo (Scald/Haze). Their Toxapex: Gholdengo's Make It Rain + Shadow Ball do decent damage but Pex recovers. Need something to break Pex. Kingambit with SD + Sucker Punch threatens Pex? Pex has Recover, Haze maybe. Slowking-Galar with FutureSight + Flamethrower/SludgeBomb pressures Pex (SludgeBomb does ~30-40%, Flamethrower ~25-30%). Slowking-Galar walls Pex, Incineroar's Darkest Lariat (only neutral, Poison resists... actually Dark vs Poison/Psychic: Dark is neutral on Poison, super effective on Psychic = 2x total). Hmm, Darkest Lariat does decent. Garchomp: Focus Sash + SD + ScaleShot + EQ — threatens Corviknight, Incineroar, Gholdengo. EQ vs Pex is neutral ~35-45%? Pex has huge Defense. But ScaleShot breaks through. Dragapult scarf — revenge kills, U-turn pivot. Kingambit Defiant — punishes Intimidate from Incineroar. Kingambit handles Dragapult/Gholdengo/Aegislash with Sucker Punch (Aegislash forme changes). My three: Garchomp, Gholdengo, Kingambit. Or Gholdengo, Kingambit, Dragapult. Or Garchomp, Slowking-Galar, Kingambit? Garchomp (Sash lead) sets rocks and SDs. Then Gholdengo + Kingambit clean up. But their Toxapex + Corviknight + Aegislash are bulky; Garchomp can break Corviknight with EQ, Toxapex with ScaleShot+EQ? Pex at 157 HP max, 224 Def. Garchomp's ScaleShot at +2... Actually ScaleShot is 25 BP x5 = 125 BP but lowers Def. At +2 Attack with STAB: 182 Atk * 1.5 * ... rough calc: 25 BP * 2.5 (STAB) * 2.5 (+2) * 0.25 each hit * ... each hit ~ (182*2.5/224 * 25/50) ... let's estimate each ScaleShot hit at +2 does ~14-17% on max-Def Pex, x5 = 70-85%. Pex survives and recovers, but chipped. Flamethrower/SludgeBomb from Slowking + FutureSight pressure Pex. Kingambit vs Pex: Iron Head at +2 does ~45-55% on max Def Pex? Kingambit 205 Atk * 2.5 * 80 BP / (224*2) ≈ 0.9 * 0.35≈ ~40%. Hmm. Their Incineroar with Intimidate is a threat to Kingambit — but Defiant gives +1 Attack back, so Incineroar can't check Kingambit! Intimidate triggers Defiant: -1 Atk then +2 = net +1. Great. So Incineroar is not a Kingambit check. Their Dragapult — my Kingambit Sucker Punch can catch it, but scarf Dragapult with Flamethrower OHKOs Kingambit (170 HP, 107 SpD... Flamethrower from 167 SpA: ~110-130%, could OHKO). Kingambit is a Sucker Punch mind-game. Gholdengo beats Aegislash (Shadow Ball), Incineroar (Make It Rain neutral, Shadow Ball neutral — Incineroar has decent bulk; Nasty Plot Gholdengo does ~55-65% to Incineroar with Make It Rain at +2? At203 SpA +2: vs 156 SpD: huge). Gholdengo walls Aegislash's Shadow Ball/SC. Consider bring: Gholdengo, Kingambit, Dragapult — balanced but weak to Pex (both Pex answers are weak: Gholdengo walled-ish, Kingambit ~40%). Dragapult can't break Pex either. Risky if their Pex is fat and recovers. Garchomp lead + Gholdengo + Kingambit: Chomp threatens Pex with ScaleShot (+2 ~75-85%, then EQ finishes), threatens Corviknight (EQ at +2 OHKOs likely: 182*2.5*100/172 ≈ ~100% — yes +2 EQ OHKOs Corviknight). Chomp vs Toxapex: if they Haze... they'd need Pex to survive. Focus Sash lets Chomp take one hit. Opponent has no obvious Chomp counter except... Ice coverage? Their team: Dragapult may have Draco/Hex, Incineroar maybe Knock Off (breaks sash), Aegislash Shadow Ball breaks sash then Shadow Sneak. Toxapex Scald. I'll go with Garchomp, Gholdengo, Kingambit. Actually Slowking-Galar with Chilly Reception could be a good lead to scout and bring in something, plus FutureSight+Kingambit combo (FutureSight + Kowtow Cleave breaks everything). But Slowking is passive vs Pex, Corviknight. Consider Garchomp lead — set SR or SD turn 1. Opponent leads likely Pex (walls Chomp) or Incineroar (Intimidate) or Corviknight. If Pex leads, Chomp SD is punished? Pex can't OHKO Sash Chomp; Scald ~30-40%, Chomp +2 ScaleShot hits Pex hard. Or Chomp sets rocks turn 1, then SD. Actually with Sash, the play: lead Garchomp, use Stealth Rock turn 1 (opponent can't prevent unless Defog/Court Change). Then SD and break. But if Pex leads, Scald + burn risk on Chomp... burn only on hit chance. Alternative lead: Slowking-Galar Chilly Reaction into Garchomp/Gholdengo safely. But I only have 3 slots; Slowking would replace one of Gholdengo/Kingambit/Chomp. Let me think about what beats their team best. Their core: Pex + Corviknight + Aegislash. Gholdengo beats Aegislash hard, Corviknight neutrally (Make It Rain ~65-75%? at 203 SpA vs 172 SpD Corviknight: 120 BP * 2.5 / ...≈ 60-70%). Pex walls Gholdengo somewhat but SludgeBomb only ~35% on Gholdengo. So Gholdengo is strong. Garchomp: EQ beats Corviknight, Incineroar, Gholdengo; ScaleShot breaks Pex. Kingambit: beats Dragapult (Sucker), Gholdengo (Sucker Punch), Aegislash; Pex is neutral (Iron Head). Garchomp + Gholdengo + Kingambit covers everything. Slowking would be nice for FutureSight synergy with Kingambit and vs Pex, but Pex answer exists in Chomp's ScaleShot. I'll go Garchomp, Gholdengo, Kingambit. Order: Garchomp lead (Sash, can set rocks or threaten). Then Gholdengo (Life Orb + NP) to pressure, Kingambit last as cleaner with Defiant punishing Incineroar. Actually, should Kingambit be second to trap Dragapult with Sucker? Gholdengo second is fine since Gholdengo forces out many. Lead Garchomp. Notes for future turns: remember opponent's team info. <notes> Opponent: Pex/Corvi/Aegislash fat core, Incineroar Intimidate (Defiant Kingambit punishes), fast Dragapult, Gholdengo. Plan: Garchomp lead with Sash — SD to break (ScaleShot breaks Toxapex, +2 EQ OHKOs Corviknight/Incineroar), set rocks. Gholdengo walls Aegislash, beats it with Shadow Ball; Nasty Plot threatens. Kingambit last cleaner: Sucker Punch traps Dragapult/Gholdengo, Defiant beats Incineroar. Save Kingambit for late-game; watch scarf Dragapult Flamethrower (OHKOs). </notes> <decision> BRING: garchomp, gholdengo, kingambit </decision>
- Turn 1Drex v2.0 used
Fakeout45% MOVE: fakeout, 16% MOVE: protect, 13% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSwordsdanceIncineroar lead, Intimidate already used. Garchomp at -1 with Sash intact. Plan: Swords Dance now (net +1 after Intimidate); if not flinched by Fake Out, +1 EQ next turn threatens OHKO on Incineroar and forces progress. Opponent may switch to Corviknight/Toxapex — SD still rewards me. Sash covers one hit. Kingambit saved for Defiant/Sucker Punch late; Gholdengo walls Aegislash.
Reasoning trace (288 words)
Incineroar is Fire/Dark, weak to Ground. Garchomp at -1 Attack: EQ at 100 BP... Incineroar HP 170-202, Def 99-156. At -1, Garchomp Atk 182 → 121 effective. EQ vs Incineroar: probably around 50-70%. Not an OHKO. Incineroar likely will use Flare Blitz or Darkest Lariat, or Fake Out (priority). Garchomp has Focus Sash, so survives one hit. Options: Swords Dance to +1 (net, back to neutral... wait, SD raises by 2, so -1 +2 = +1). Then next turn EQ at +1 hits hard. But Incineroar could Flare Blitz and break sash. Actually with Sash intact, I can SD this turn (surviving any hit at full HP), then EQ next turn at +1 which likely OHKOs. But Incineroar might switch out. If it switches to Corviknight/Toxapex, SD is still good. Alternatively set rocks. But SD is more aggressive and good here. Risk: Incineroar uses Fake Out first (priority) breaking sash, then... no, only one move per turn. Fake Out + flinch would prevent SD. Hmm, Fake Out causes flinch. If Incineroar uses Fake Out, Garchomp flinches and does nothing. But Incineroar lead often has Fake Out. If it does, it would use it. Then I lose a turn. Alternatively, switch to Kingambit — Defiant punishes Intimidate... but Intimidate already triggered on Garchomp. Switching Kingambit in now doesn't get Defiant boost (Intimidate already used this switch-in). EQ at -1 does decent damage. Let's think: Garchomp 182 Atk, -1 → 121. Incineroar def maybe ~127 (mid). EQ 100 BP vs Fire/Dark (neutral, actually Ground is neutral on both... Incineroar Fire/Dark, Ground hits neutral). Damage ≈ 121*100/2/127... roughly 47% × modifiers. Not great. SD line: if no flinch, +1 next turn EQ does ~95%+ to Incineroar. Good. I'll go Swords Dance.
- Turn 2Drex v2.0 used
Crunch25% MOVE: crunch, 23% SWITCH: gholdengo, 19% MOVE: protect
MiMo V2.6 Flash switched toGholdengoSash broken (Garchomp not at full HP). Intimidate already used once; switching Kingambit won't trigger Defiant. Garchomp at -1 EQ only ~50% Incineroar and dies to Flare Blitz. Gholdengo resists Fire, walls Incineroar, threatens Make It Rain/Shadow Ball. Preserve Garchomp for later chip/rocks. Kingambit saved as Defiant deterrent/cleaner.
Reasoning trace (304 words)
Incineroar at 77%, Life Orb. Garchomp at -1 Atk, Sash intact (not full HP though—153/183, so Sash won't trigger! Focussash requires full HP). Wait, Sash requires full HP, and Garchomp is at 153/183. So Sash is broken already effectively. -1 EQ from Garchomp vs Incineroar: base 100 at 182 Atk, -1 → 121 effective. vs Incineroar Def ~99-156. Rough calc: 182 Atk EQ at 1x vs neutral 100 Def ≈ 90-107%. At -1 that's ~60-72%. Against defensive Incineroar (156 Def), maybe ~45%. Life Orb Incineroar's Flare Blitz at +0 vs Garchomp: 121-183 Atk, LO 1.3x, super effective... Garchomp 115 Def. Flare Blitz 120 BP STAB SE — likely OHKO or close to it on a 83% Garchomp. Options: SD (then at +1 net, but likely eats Flare Blitz and dies since Sash broken). Risky. Switch Kingambit: Defiant punishes Intimidate but Incineroar already used Intimidate on switch-in — switching Kingambit in now doesn't trigger Intimidate again (only on switch-in of Incineroar). So Defiant won't proc. Incineroar likely Flare Blizzes. Kingambit takes SE Fire hit — bulky140 Def but Flare Blitz LO from Incineroar could do ~50-70%. Then Kingambit threatens with Kowtow Cleave/Sucker Punch. Switch Gholdengo: resists Fire (Steel), neutral to Dark. Flare Blitz does maybe 30-40%. Gholdengo then threatens Make It Rain/Shadow Ball. Good as Gold blocks status. Gholdengo seems safe and keeps Kingambit for late. Actually Gholdengo vs Incineroar: Incineroar can't touch it much beyond Flare Blitz (~35%). Gholdengo's Make It Rain at 203 SpA vs Incineroar SpD 99-156: likely 2HKO or OHKO. Shadow Ball also. Good. But Dragapult could come in and threaten Gholdengo. Still, Gholdengo is fine. Alternatively EQ to chip. But Garchomp likely dies to Flare Blitz and does only ~50%. Switching Gholdengo preserves Garchomp (still useful with Sash broken but has ScaleShot/SD potential... actually low HP). I'll switch to Gholdengo.
- Turn 3Drex v2.0 used
Crunch45% MOVE: crunch, 22% SWITCH: gholdengo, 20% SWITCH: dragapult
MiMo V2.6 Flash switched toKingambitGholdengo at 7 HP dies to Life Orb recoil after any attack, and Shadow Ball is resisted on Incineroar — minimal value. Switching Kingambit in triggers Intimidate → Defiant → +2 Attack, turning the Intimidate into a setup. Then Kowtow Cleave threatens a OHKO on Incineroar. Save Garchomp for later (Rough Skin chip + EQ).
Reasoning trace (193 words)
Gholdengo at 7 HP dies to anything. Shadow Ball does resisted80 BP with Life Orb... would kill Incineroar from 67%? Unlikely - resisted, Incineroar has decent SpD. Probably ~25-30%. Gholdengo dies after Life Orb recoil anyway (7 HP - Life Orb recoil dies). Actually, Gholdengo with7 HP will die to Life Orb recoil after attacking regardless. So Gholdengo can only get one attack off and then dies. Shadow Ball would do maybe 25% to Incineroar. Better: switch to Kingambit. Kingambit resists both Dark and Fire moves. Intimidate was already used, won't trigger again on switch... wait, Intimidate triggers every switch-in. If Incineroar stays in, switching to Kingambit doesn't trigger Defiant because Defiant only triggers on the Pokemon's own stats being lowered, which happens when Kingambit switches in and Intimidate activates. Yes! Defiant would trigger when Kingambit switches in and gets Intimidated. Wait, Defiant: "When this Pokemon's stats are lowered, its Attack rises by 2 stages." Intimidate on switch-in lowers Attack → Defiant triggers → +2 Attack. That's perfect! So switching to Kingambit: gets Intimidate → Defiant → +2 Attack. Then Kingambit threatens with Kowtow Cleave or Sucker Punch. Let me switch to Kingambit.
- Turn 4Drex v2.0 switched to
Dragapult28% SWITCH: dragapult, 26% SWITCH: gholdengo, 20% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSwordsdanceKingambit at 172/207 tanks Incineroar's resisted Crunch (~35 dmg); even Life Orb Flare Blitz only ~28%, so I survive any hit. Dark/Steel moves are all resisted on Incineroar, so attacking now does little. Swords Dance turns Kingambit into a wallbreaker: +2 Kowtow Cleave (never misses, Black Glasses + STAB) likely OHKOs 57% Incineroar or heavily dents whatever they switch to. If they switch Toxapex/Corviknight in, +2 still pressures. Save Garchomp (Rough Skin chip) and 7HP Gholdengo as death fodder.
Reasoning trace (478 words)
Kingambit has Defiant active? The Defiant effect listed as a condition — but Intimidate was on switch-in. Actually the log says effects: defiant listed — but Defiant triggers when lowered. Kingambit switched in on turn 3; Incineroar's Intimidate was used turn 1 against Garchomp, not on switch-in of Kingambit (Incineroar didn't switch). So Kingambit is at base attack205, not boosted. Dark moves are not very effective on Incineroar (Fire/Dark). Iron Head is not very effective too (Fire resists Steel? Fire resists Steel, yes). So all attacks are resisted. Incineroar at 57% with Life Orb. Kingambit's moves resisted... Kowtow cleave at 205 Atk, blackglasses 1.2x, STAB 1.5x... vs Incineroar defense ~99-156. Hard to KO. Option: Swords Dance to +2, then attacks. Incineroar's Crunch on Kingambit is not very effective (Dark vs Steel =0.5x... Kingambit is Dark/Steel, Dark hits Steel 0.5x? Dark vs Steel: not very effective, yes). Crunch did 172 from 207 = 35 HP with Life Orb 1.3x. So Kingambit tanks well. Swords Dance: then Kowtow Cleave at +2 with black glasses. Let's estimate: Kowtow 85 BP, STAB 1.5, blackglasses 1.2 = 153 effective, +2 = 306 base-ish. Incineroar defense maybe 120ish at 50. Damage≈... Garchomp EQ at 182 atk vs 115 def does roughly? Rough estimate:100 BP ground, neutral. Let's just say Kowtow at +2 likely2HKO or close to KO on 57% Incineroar. But Incineroar might switch. If it switches to Corviknight or Toxapex, Dark moves neutral/beneficial? Dark vs Corviknight neutral, Toxapex neutral (poison/water, dark neutral). Actually Kowtow Cleave never misses. Alternatively Sucker Punch for priority — but if they switch or use status, fails. Swords Dance seems strong: Kingambit survives Crunch (35 damage), gets to +2, then sweeps. But opponent may switch to something that threatens Kingambit — e.g., Toxapex (Water/Poison, likely Scald/Toxic), Incineroar has Flare Blitz (super effective vs Steel? Fire vs Steel 2x, Kingambit Dark/Steel takes2x from Fire). If Incineroar has Flare Blitz, it could hurt. Life Orb Flare Blitz at 183 atk vs Kingambit 140 def... could be ~50-60%. Kingambit at 172/207 survives. Note also Defiant: if they switch in something with Intimidate? Only Incineroar has Intimidate, already in. I think Swords Dance is the standard strong play. Risk: opponent attacks with a super effective move and possibly KOs. Flare Blitz recoil + Life Orb. Kingambit has 172 HP; Flare Blitz from Life Orb Incineroar on Kingambit... Estimate: 120 BP fire, STAB 1.5, Life Orb 1.3 = 234, Atk maybe 183 (max) vs Def 140. Level 50 damage calc: (2*50/50+2)*120*183/140/... Let's do proper: base damage = ((2*50/50+2)*120*Atk/Def)/50+2 = (4*120*183/140)/50+2 = (4*120=480; 480*183=87840; /140=627.4)/50 = 12.55+2 = 14.5. Then STAB 1.5 = 21.8, LO 1.3 = 28.3, random 0.85-1 = ~24-28%. So Kingambit survives comfortably. Then +2 Kowtow would OHKO. If opponent switches, Kingambit +2 Kowtow still does big damage. Swords Dance is safe here. Also consider Defiant interaction — nothing. Go Swords Dance.
- Turn 5Drex v2.0 used
Uturn24% MOVE: uturn, 21% SWITCH: gholdengo, 19% MOVE: shadowball
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSuckerpunchDragapult is the biggest threat: Ghost/Dragon, outspeeds Kingambit. Dark is super effective on it. Sucker Punch at +2 with Black Glasses + STAB should OHKO its frail defenses (Def 85-139) before it moves, and Kingambit resists Ghost so even a misplay isn't fatal. If they switch (Toxapex/Corviknight), Sucker Punch fails but I keep +2 and can Kowtow next turn. Incineroar stays in reserve at 57%. Gholdengo 7HP is death fodder; Garchomp saved for Rough Skin chip/EQ.
Reasoning trace (287 words)
Dragapult is Ghost type — Dark moves are super effective. Kingambit at +2 with Black Glasses. Kowtow Cleave: 85 BP * 1.2 * 2 (STAB) * 1.5 (+2... actually +2 = 2x) → huge. But Dragapult may outspeed and hit Kingambit with a Dragon move. Kingambit has 172 HP, Dragapult physical Dragon Darts would do big damage. But Kingambit is Dark/Steel — Dragon is neutral. Dragapult could be special (Shadow Ball/Dragon Pulse) — Ghost is neutral on Dark/Steel? Ghost vs Dark = resisted. So Kingambit likely survives one hit. Sucker punch priority +1, super effective, STAB, Black Glasses, +2 → likely OHKO on frail Dragapult (Def 85-139). Let's estimate: base power 70 * 1.2 (glasses) * 2 (STAB) * 2 (+2 atk) = 336 effective. Dragapult HP163-195, defense ~85-139. At +2 Kingambit attack 205*... a lot. Likely OHKO. Risk: Sucker Punch fails if Dragapult switches or uses status. But Kowtow Cleave also likely kills and doesn't miss. If Dragapult attacks, sucker punch kills it first. If Dragapult switches to a wall (Toxapex), sucker punch fails but kowtow would dent. Dragapult is the big threat — kill it. I'll go sucker punch. Risk of failure if they switch... but if they switch, we just lose a turn, still +2. Actually if they switch to Toxapex, sucker punch fails, we waste a turn but stay +2. Alternatively kowtow cleave is safe85 BP, super effective, never misses, but slower — Dragapult hits us first. Dragapult might not KO Kingambit though (Steel resists nothing relevant... Dragon neutral, Ghost resisted). Likely survives. But sucker punch kills without taking damage. Given Dragapult is a major threat and Kingambit likely survives a hit, sucker punch is best — priority, guaranteed kill if they attack.
Drex v2.0 switched toGholdengo71% SWITCH: gholdengo, 29% SWITCH: incineroar
- Turn 6Drex v2.0 used
Shadowball31% MOVE: shadowball, 23% MOVE: trick, 16% SWITCH: incineroar
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSuckerpunchTurn 5: Dragapult KO'd by +2 Sucker Punch; opponent down to Gholdengo (100%) and Incineroar (57%). Now: opponent Gholdengo outspeeds Kingambit, and Shadow Ball (super effective on Dark) could OHKO my 172 HP Kingambit — so I must strike first. Sucker Punch has priority and KOs if it attacks; if they Nasty Plot/switch, I still have HP and Kowtow next turn. Kowtow risks dying to Shadow Ball first. Gholdengo 7HP and Garchomp (sash) saved as fodder/late cleaner.
Reasoning trace (720 words)
Gholdengo opposing: Steel/Ghost, Dark super effective. +2 Kingambit Kowtow Cleave should OHKO. Sucker Punch risks failing if they switch or use status — but Gholdengo's Good as Gold blocks status, so it will attack. Still, Shadow Ball is super effective on Kingambit? No — Kingambit is Dark/Steel, Ghost is super effective on Dark. Shadow Ball would hurt badly. Kingambit at 172 HP; +2 opponent Gholdengo Shadow Ball could KO. Sucker Punch goes first with priority — safest if they attack. They might switch to Incineroar (Dark resists Dark) — but they've only got Gholdengo and Incineroar left, and Incineroar is Dark, taking neutral... Dark on Dark is not very effective. If they switch to Incineroar, Sucker Punch fails or is resisted. Kowtow Cleave is safe, never misses, and hits Gholdengo for SE damage. But slower — Gholdengo's Shadow Ball super effective on Kingambit could KO. Let's estimate: Gholdengo SpA 137-203, Shadow Ball 80 BP, STAB = 120, SE on Dark = 2x. Kingambit SpD 107, HP 172. Damage ~ maybe 60-90%. Risky. Sucker Punch priority: if Gholdengo attacks, it hits first, +2, Black Glasses, Dark SE on Ghost... wait, Dark is super effective on Ghost, and Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost. Steel resists Dark. So Dark on Steel/Ghost: Ghost weak to Dark (2x), Steel resists (0.5x) = neutral. Hmm! The legal action says "super effective on gholdengo" though. Let me trust the prompt? Actually mathematically it's neutral. But the prompt states super effective. Their Gholdengo on my side — same typing. Let me trust game calc: Dark vs Steel/Ghost = Ghost takes 2x, Steel takes 0.5x → 1x neutral. The prompt may be wrong but I should follow stated info. +2 Kowtow 85 BP × Black Glasses 1.2 × STAB 1.5 × 2 = huge. Gholdengo Def 103-161, HP 162-194. Attack 205×2=410. Likely OHKO regardless. Risk: if they attack with Shadow Ball and I use Sucker Punch, I win. If they switch, Sucker Punch fails but no loss (Kowtow next turn). If they use a status move... Good as Gold means they can't status, so they'd attack or switch. But they could use Nasty Plot? That's their own status — allowed. Nasty Plot boosts their SpA. Then Sucker Punch fails, but they'd be at +2 SpA and outspeed, Shadow Ball next turn could KO me. Safest: Sucker Punch — if they attack, they die first. If they Nasty Plot or switch, I still take a hit but Kingambit is at 83%. Actually if they Nasty Plot then Shadow Ball +2 could KO Kingambit. Alternatively Kowtow Cleave guarantees damage even if Sucker Punch fails, but risks taking an attack first. Hmm. Consider: Gholdengo's likely moves: Shadow Ball, Make It Rain, Nasty Plot, Recover. Shadow Ball is the main threat. Sucker Punch covers the attacking case, which is the dangerous one. If they Nasty Plot, I survive the first Shadow Ball (maybe) — uncertain. Actually if I use Kowtow Cleave and they attack, I take a Shadow Ball (non-boosted) — estimated damage: SpA 137-203, Shadow Ball 80 STAB 120, SE on Dark 2x = 240 effective. Kingambit SpD 107, HP 207. Rough: (240 * 205/107... no, use HP. Damage ≈ 240 × (target HP... ) typical formula: ~ (2×50+2)/50... at level 50, modifier ~ (2*50+2)/50 = 2.04. Damage = 2.04 × 240 × Atk/SpD / ... let's just approximate: SpA 170 avg, SpD 107: ratio 1.59. Damage ≈ 2.04 × 80×1.5(STAB)×2(SE) × 170/107 / ... hmm formula: ((2*50/5+2)*Power*A/D)/50 + 2 times modifiers. (2*50/5+2)=22. 22×240×170/107 = 22×240=5280 ×1.589=8390; /50 = 168 +2 = 170. Times2 for SE... wait I already included SE in 240?80×1.5=120 STAB, SE 2x = 240. So damage ~170 with SpA 170. That's nearly KO on 172 HP. Ouch. So Kowtow risk is dying. Sucker Punch is clearly better: kills before they move if they attack. If they Nasty Plot... risky but they'd likely just attack or switch. Also they might switch to Incineroar expecting Sucker Punch — Dark resisted, but at +2 it still does a lot:85 BP... sucker70×1.2×1.5=126 effective vs Incineroar Dark (0.5x) = 63. At +2 410 Atk vs Def ~128: 22×63×410/128 = 22×63=1386×3.2=4436/50=89. Incineroar at 57% (~110 HP) takes ~89 → survives at ~20%. Hmm. If they switch, Sucker Punch fails and I lose a turn but they're in with Incineroar. Next turn Kowtow. I'll go Sucker Punch.
Drex v2.0 switched toIncineroarIncident report
Only one legal action: played without asking.
- Turn 7Drex v2.0 used
Willowisp45% MOVE: willowisp, 30% MOVE: protect, 18% MOVE: crunch
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSuckerpunchTurn 6: +2 Sucker Punch KO'd their Gholdengo. Opponent's last Pokémon is Incineroar (57%, Life Orb). Defiant gave me +3 after Intimidate. Incineroar must attack (no switch left), so Sucker Punch is guaranteed to fire — priority avoids its Flare Blitz (super effective, could KO me). Even resisted (0.5x), +3 STAB Black Glasses Sucker Punch should easily KO 57% Incineroar. This wins the game.
Reasoning trace (451 words)
Kingambit at +3 Attack, Black Glasses. Incineroar 57% HP, Fire/Dark resists Dark moves. Kowtow Cleave at +3 with Black Glasses: base 85 * 1.5 STAB * 1.2 blackglasses * 2.5 (from +3... actually +3 = 2.5x) — huge. But resisted 0.25x (Dark on Fire/Dark: Dark resisted by Dark? Fire/Dark: Dark is resisted by Dark type? No — Dark is not resistant to Dark. Fire/Dark defensive: Dark is weak to... Fire/Dark takes neutral from Dark? Let's check: Dark type defensively is weak to Fighting, Bug, Fairy; resists Dark, Ghost. Fire resists... Fire is weak to Water, Ground, Rock; resists Fire, Grass, Ice, Bug, Steel, Fairy. So Fire/Dark: Dark move — Dark resisted by Dark (0.5), Fire neutral → 0.5x. "Not very effective" = 0.5x. So Kowtow: 85 * 1.5 * 1.2 * 2.5 * 0.5 = 241 base power equivalent, vs Incineroar Def ~100-150, HP 57% of ~186. Attack 205*2.5 = 512. Damage formula: (2*50/5+2)*power*Atk/Def = (22)*241*512/125 ≈ 22*241=5302*512/125 = 21716... /50 +... roughly damage = ((2*50/5+2)*241*512/125)/50+2 ≈ (22*241*4.096)/50 = 21716/50 = 434. Way overkill. Even at neutral it KOs. Wait that seems too high — let me recompute: 22 * 241 * (512/125) = 22*241*4.096 = 21,716. Divide by 50 → 434 damage. HP is ~186. So yes, overkill even with resistance. Hmm, but is Atk 205 at level 50 with +3 = 205*2.5 = 512.5. Yes. Actually wait, does Incineroar survive? 434 > 186, easily KO. Even if my calc is off by 2x, still KO. But Incineroar moves first (speed 72-123 vs 70). It could Flare Blitz (super effective on Kingambit? Fire vs Steel = 2x, Dark neutral → 2x) with Life Orb. That could hurt. Kingambit 172/207. Flare Blitz: base 120 * 1.3 Life Orb * 2x SE = strong. Incineroar Atk ~150 * Life Orb... could deal ~60-80%? Possibly KO. Sucker Punch is not very effective (0.5x) but priority. At +3: 70*1.5*1.2*2.5*0.5 = 157.5 effective. Damage ≈ 22*157.5*4.096/50 = 283. Still overkill vs 186 HP. So Sucker Punch KOs if it attacks, and goes first. But if Incineroar doesn't attack (switch?), Sucker Punch fails. Opponent has only Incineroar left (3 brought: Incineroar, Dragapult, Gholdengo — both fainted). So Incineroar is their last! No switch possible. It must attack or... it will attack. So Sucker Punch always works and KOs. Wait — opponent brought 3: incineroar, dragapult, gholdengo. Dragapult and Gholdengo fainted. So Incineroar is last, it must attack. Sucker Punch is guaranteed to fire. Sucker Punch priority ensures I go first, avoiding Flare Blitz KO risk. Even if not very effective, +3 Black Glasses STAB should KO 57% Incineroar. Calc: 22 * 157.5 * (512/125) / 50 = 22*157.5=3465*4.096=14,193/50=284. Yes, KO. So Sucker Punch wins the game.
- Turn 8Drex v2.0 used
Protect48% MOVE: protect, 43% MOVE: crunch, 8% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSuckerpunchTurn 7: Sucker Punch failed on their Will-O-Wisp; Kingambit now burned (chip 13/turn) but still +3 Atk. Their Incineroar is their last mon (57%, LO). If they attack: Sucker Punch (priority) deals ~55 resisted, plus Flare Blitz recoil + Life Orb chip likely KOs them this turn — I win even if Kingambit faints. If they status again, Kingambit resists Crunch 0.25x and keeps chip damage going; Garchomp (sash, unburned) stays as cleanup. Never let them burn Garchomp.
Reasoning trace (1,735 words)
Sucker Punch failed last turn — they used Will-O-Wisp, a status move. Now Kingambit is burned, so physical attack halved. At +3 burned = effectively +2 (well, 0.5x of +3). Kowtow cleave: 85 BP, 0.5x Dark resistance = 42.5, STAB 1.5x = 63.75, black glasses 1.2x = 76.5, burned 0.5x = 38.25, +3 attack = 8x... wait let's compute properly. Attack multiplier: +3 = 2.5x. Burn halves = 1.25x effective. Def: Incineroar Def 99-156, average ~128. Kingambit Atk 205.Damage = (2*50/50+2)*205*76.5/def /50 +2 ≈ ... let's just estimate: base damage ~ (2*2+2)=4? No formula: ((2*Level/5+2)*Power*A/D)/50 + 2. Level 50. (2*50/5+2)=22. 22*205*38.25(def avg 128? use 128)...22*205=4510. *38.25=172,507. /128=1348. /50=27. So ~27 HP damage. Incineroar at 57% of ~186 HP≈ 106 HP. Not enough. Even without burn, +3 kowtow would be ~54 HP. Not enough either. Hmm, so Kingambit can't KO. Burn damage also chips1/16. Options: switch to Garchomp (83.6%, sash intact). Incineroar's moves: fake out (only turn 1, doesn't work now), crunch (SE vs Garchomp? Dark vs Dragon/Ground =1x), willowisp, flare blitz likely. Garchomp at 153 HP with sash. Earthquake vs Incineroar: Ground 1x, STAB 1.5, Atk 182 but no boost, no item boost. Damage: 22*182*100/128... wait Def of Incineroar physical99-156 avg 128. 22*182=4004*100=400,400/128=3128/50=62.5 HP. Incineroar at 106 HP — not a KO in one hit but two hits. Garchomp speed 169 > Incineroar max 123, so Garchomp moves first. If they Flare Blitz: Fire vs Garchomp 1x... actually Fire vs Dragon = 0.5x, Ground = 1x, so 0.5x. Life orb 1.3x. Incineroar Atk ~152 avg. Flare Blitz 120 BP. 22*152*120*1.3/... vs Garchomp Def 115. 22*152=3344*156=521,664/115=4536/50=90 HP + recoil. That's big but Garchomp has sash at 153 HP...90 < 153, survives easily. Actually wait, is recoil relevant? Yes Flare Blitz recoil 1/3 damage dealt ~30 HP. So Flare Blitz would take Incineroar to 57% -30/186 ≈ 41%. Then Garchomp EQ again KO's. But they might use Will-O-Wisp on Garchomp switch, or Crunch. Crunch on Garchomp: Dark 1x. 22*152*80*1.3=347,776/115... wait Def of Garchomp 115. 22*152=3344*80=267,520*1.3=347,776/115=3024/50=60 HP. Garchomp survives, EQ KOs. Actually, better plan: switch to Garchomp, then EQ. Garchomp outspeeds and2HKOes. Their best play is Flare Blitz to try to burn through, but Garchomp lives comfortably. But wait — Kingambit burn is chipping it (160/207 → will go to ~147). Kingambit at +3 burned still deals ~27 per kowtow. Not winning. Alternatively keep Kingambit in and use kowtow? 27 damage + burn... Incineroar would KO Kingambit eventually. Kingambit Dark/Steel resists Crunch (0.5x... actually Dark resists Dark 0.5, Steel resists Dark 0.5 → 0.25x). Flare Blitz would be 4x SE though. They revealed fake out, crunch, will-o-wisp. 4th move likely Flare Blitz or Darkest Lariat. If Flare Blitz, Kingambit dies (22*152*120*1.3*2 (4x SE? Fire vs Steel2x, Dark1x → 2x) ... 22*152=3344*120=401,280*1.3=521,664*2=1,043,328/140=7452/50=149 HP. Kingambit at 160 survives barely! Then kowtow + recoil kills them? Flare Blitz recoil = 1/3 *149 ≈ 50 HP. Incineroar at 106 - 50 = 56 HP. Then kowtow ~27 damage, then burn recoil next turn... hmm, would need 3 turns. Actually, safest: Sucker Punch might work if they attack! It failed last time because they used status. If they attack now (they might just Flare Blitz to kill Kingambit), Sucker Punch fires. Resisted 0.5x: 22*205*70*1.2... wait black glasses 1.2, STAB 1.5, resisted 0.5, burned 0.5, +3 2.5x. Effective: 70*1.5*1.2*0.5 = 63 power equivalent, *0.5 burn = 31.5, *2.5 atk boost = 78.75. Damage = 22*205*63/128... hmm let me compute: Power = 70, mods: STAB 1.5 → 105, black glasses 1.2 → 126, resisted 0.5 → 63. Atk: 205 * 2.5 (at+3) * 0.5 (burn) = 256.25. Damage = 22*256.25*63/128/50 = 22*256.25=5637.5*63=355,162/128=2775/50=55.5 HP. Incineroar at 106 HP. Not KO but good chip. Plus burn chip on Incineroar? No, Incineroar isn't burned. Hmm, but if they Will-O-Wisp again or use recovery, Sucker Punch fails again and Kingambit takes burn chip. Risky. Best play: switch to Garchomp. Garchomp is faster, has sash, can EQ twice to KO. Their options vs Garchomp: Flare Blitz (resisted 0.5, ~90 damage, Garchomp at 153 survives, recoil helps), Crunch (~60), Will-O-Wisp (then Garchomp burned, EQ at 182*0.5 = 91 effective... still ~31 damage per EQ, hmm that's bad). Wait, if they burn Garchomp, EQ damage becomes ~31 per hit — that's 4 hits to KO. Meanwhile burn chip on Garchomp. That's bad. Hmm. Alternatively, keep Kingambit in and just Sucker Punch — if it fails again to a status move, we're still fine because Kingambit resists Crunch 0.25x. But Flare Blitz 2x SE does ~149 which nearly KOs Kingambit (160 HP). Let me think about what the opponent will do. They're at 57% Incineroar vs my +3 burned Kingambit, 83% Garchomp with sash, 7% Gholdengo. They can see Garchomp in back. Their Incineroar needs to take out both. Will-O-Wisp is a smart play to neuter physical attackers. They already burned Kingambit. They might Wis again on a switch. I think the cleanest line: switch Garchomp in on a predicted status/attack, then EQ. Even if burned, Garchomp still has Rough Skin + sash, and two EQs at ~31 each would take 106 HP → 4 turns. Too slow with burn chip (10 per turn). Alternative: Dragon Scale Shot? Same issue. Actually let me reconsider: Kingambit +3 burned kowtow = ~27 per hit. If they don't kill Kingambit, over several turns 106/27 = 4 turns. Kingambit takes burn13/turn and Crunch 0.25x≈ 15 damage. Survives a while but eventually dies. The cleanest is: switch Garchomp in, EQ. If they burn Garchomp, switch back? Complicated. Actually, what about: keep Kingambit in and use Sucker Punch. If they attack with Flare Blitz, Sucker Punch does 55, Incineroar takes recoil ~35 (from dealing 149), goes to 51-35... wait, 106 HP - 55 (SP) - 35 (recoil) = 16 HP. Then burn chip on Kingambit. Next turn Kingambit at ~147-13=134? Wait, Kingambit took 149 from Flare Blitz... 160-149 = 11 HP. Then dies to burn. But Incineroar at 16 HP dies to any hit — Garchomp comes in and EQ easily KOs. Actually Kingambit faints to burn at end of turn. Then I choose Garchomp (153 HP, no burn) vs 16 HP Incineroar. Garchomp outspeeds and EQ KOs. Win! But if they Will-O-Wisp again instead of attacking, Sucker Punch fails, Kingambit takes 13 burn, they're at 106. Then they have an unburned Incineroar vs my burned Kingambit and I still need to break through. Hmm, risk analysis: If they attack (Flare Blitz/Crunch), Sucker Punch line wins essentially. If they status, we're slightly behind but still have Garchomp sash. If I switch Garchomp: if they attack with Flare Blitz, Garchomp takes ~90 (at 153 → 63), EQ does ~62, they're at 44. Next turn EQ KOs (they'd need to KO Garchomp which they can't in one Flare Blitz from 63? 90 damage > 63... they'd KO). Hmm wait, second Flare Blitz from 44 HP: Garchomp at 63, takes 90 → faints. But sash! Sash keeps Garchomp at 1. Then EQ KOs. But then Kingambit burned +3... fine. Actually, both lines are winning. I think the simplest is: Incineroar must attack eventually — they can't stall out with burn forever against Sucker Punch priority. Sucker Punch is priority so Kingambit moves first. Let me just Sucker Punch. If it fails, no big deal, Kingambit resists their attacks. Wait — but they know Sucker Punch failed last time, so they might just spam Will-O-Wisp/recover-type moves. Actually they have no recovery shown. Their4th move is unknown. Could be Flare Blitz, Darkest Lariat, U-turn, Parting Shot, Knock Off. If they Parting Shot... they have no switch left (all others fainted). So Parting Shot would just lower stats. I'll go Sucker Punch: if it hits, big chip + they take Life Orb chip. If it fails, Kingambit is still healthy enough. But hmm, another consideration — Sucker Punch PP: 5/8, fine. Actually wait, one more consideration: what if they use Flare Blitz and KO Kingambit through...149 damage vs 160 HP, survives. But there's spread of Incineroar Atk: 121-183. If max Atk 183: 22*183*120*1.3*2/140/50 = 22*183=4026*120=483,120*1.3=628,056*2=1,256,112/140=8972/50=179. That KO's Kingambit (160 HP). Hmm, if they have max Atk and Flare Blitz, Kingambit faints. Then Garchomp (153, sash) comes in vs Incineroar that took recoil60 and SP 55... they'd be at ~-9, fainting. Actually with Sucker Punch landing first: 106 - 55 = 51, then Flare Blitz KO's Kingambit, recoil 1/3*179 = 60, 51-60 < 0, faints! So Incineroar faints too, I win with Garchomp remaining. OK so Sucker Punch seems great. If it lands and they Flare Blitz, we win this turn essentially. Let me do Sucker Punch. Risk: they use Will-O-Wisp again → SP fails. Then Kingambit takes 13 burn. They have burned both my mons, still need to get through. Then I could switch to Garchomp (burned is fine, sash). It's still winning long-run because they have no recovery and Rough Skin + Life Orb chips them. Actually if they Will-O-Wisp Garchomp on switch, Garchomp burned at 153... EQ at 182*1.5 stab*0.5 burn = effective 91 atk... 22*91*100/128/50 = 22*91=2002*100=200,200/128=1564/50=31 HP. 3-4 hits needed. Meanwhile burn chip 10/turn, Crunch 60... Garchomp dies in ~2 hits after burn. Hmm, that's actually dangerous. But with Sucker Punch: if they burn, Kingambit keeps attacking with kowtow for 27/turn while they Life Orb chip themselves12/turn and take burn... no they don't burn themselves. Hmm, let me think about Sucker Punch being smarter: Kingambit resists Crunch 0.25x and burn just chips. If they Flare Blitz and it KOs (worst case 179 damage from max Atk), Incineroar takes 60 recoil + 55 from SP + Life Orb 18 = 106 - 133... they faint too. So worst case for me: Kingambit faints, Incineroar faints (due to SP+recoil+Life Orb), leaving me with Garchomp + Gholdengo vs nothing = I win since opponent has no mons left (all 3 fainted). Wait, they have only 3 mons: Dragapult, Gholdengo, Incineroar. Dragapult and Gholdengo fainted, only Incineroar. If Incineroar faints, I win regardless. So: Sucker Punch + Incineroar attacks (any damaging move with recoil or just LO chip) → I win. If they only use status, we continue with me having huge advantage. Actually even better: Sucker Punch + Flare Blitz KOs Incineroar this turn if SP does 55 and recoil is 60. Even without Flare Blitz, if they Crunch (60 damage, no recoil), Incineroar at 51, Kingambit survives easily, then next turn kowtow 27 + SP 55... they're dead in2 turns. Decision: Sucker Punch.
- Turn 9Drex v2.0 used
Protect44% MOVE: protect, 44% MOVE: crunch, 12% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedSuckerpunchTurn 8: Incineroar Protect-stalling to waste my burn. Burn ticks me (~7/turn from 148) but them faster (57% → dead in ~12 turns vs my ~21). They must attack eventually. Protect consecutive-use chance drops to 1/3 — if it fails and they attacked, Sucker Punch KOs with priority. If they status, I fail but burn still favors me. Keep Sucker Punching; Garchomp sash stays as backup cleanup if Kingambit falls.
Reasoning trace (1,149 words)
Sucker Punch has failed twice. Their Incineroar is Protect-stalling my burn. Burn chip is doing work though (57% now, and burn does ~7.6 HP per turn on207... wait that's my Kingambit's HP. Their burn chip on Incineroar: 57% of 170-202, so 7-10 HP per turn). Options: - Sucker Punch again: they might attack this time (Protect only works so many times, and Protect stalling has diminishing accuracy). If they attack, I win. - Kowtow Cleave: not very effective but doesn't fail. 85 BP * 0.5 = 42.5 effective, plus STAB and +3 Atk and Black Glasses. That could still do decent damage. Actually, the opponent seems to be Protect-stalling to waste my burn. They might attack now or continue with status moves. If I use Kowtow Cleave, it hits regardless of what they do (unless they Protect again). If they Protect, it's blocked but I don't waste a Sucker Punch. If they attack, Kowtow deals damage. Actually the math: +3 Atk Kingambit, Black Glasses, STAB Kowtow Cleave (85 BP * 1.5 STAB * 1.2 Black Glasses = 153 effective BP, * 0.5 vs Fire/Dark = 76.5 effective BP, * 1.3 if they're not... wait it's physical). Against Incineroar's Def (99-156 range at level 50), this could do around 30-45%. They're at 57%. Actually, if they keep Protect-stalling, my burn will kill me eventually. I have 148 HP and burn does ~7-8 per turn, so about 18-20 more turns. That's plenty. But they might switch up and use Flare Blitz or Crunch. Flare Blitz is super effective on Kingambit (Fire vs Steel/Dark = 2x). With Life Orb and +3... wait, their Atk isn't boosted. At 57% HP, Life Orb recoil plus the attack... Let me think about what's optimal. Sucker Punch only works if they attack. They've been Protecting. If I predict they'll attack this turn (Protect fails more on consecutive use), Sucker Punch is best. If I predict they'll Protect or use a status move, Kowtow Cleave is better since it at least hits through Protect... wait no, Protect blocks all damaging moves. Actually the safest play might be Kowtow Cleave since: 1. If they attack: I deal damage AND take their hit 2. If they Protect: I waste the turn but don't lose PP on Sucker Punch 3. If they use status: I deal damage vs Sucker Punch: 1. If they attack: I deal damage first (priority) 2. If they Protect: fail 3. If they use status: fail Given they've been stalling with Protect and Will-O-Wisp, Kowtow Cleave seems safer for consistent damage. But if they attack, Sucker Punch with priority means I hit first, and with +3 Atk, even resisted, it could KO them before they hit me. Let me calculate Sucker Punch damage: 70 BP * 1.5 STAB * 1.2 Black Glasses * 0.5 (resist) = 63 effective BP * 1.5 (attack boost multiplier... wait, +3 Atk = 2.5x). So roughly 63 * 2.5 = 157.5 effective base power equivalent. Against their Def... this should do around 40-55%, which could KO from 57%. Kowtow Cleave: 85 * 1.5 * 1.2 * 0.5 = 76.5 * 2.5 = 191.25 effective. That's more damage but no priority. If they attack and I use Kowtow: I take their hit first (they're faster), then I hit back. Flare Blitz from Life Orb Incineroar on my Kingambit (Steel/Dark) = 2x effective, could do50-60% to me from 148. Plus recoil and Life Orb chip. Then my Kowtow hits back. This could work. If they attack and I use Sucker Punch: I hit first with priority. If it KOs, great. If not, I take their hit. I think Sucker Punch is actually the right call here. They have to attack at some point to win. If I keep Sucker Punching, eventually they attack and I win. If I Kowtow and they attack, I take damage first. But wait - they could also just let burn kill me while Protect-stalling. At 148 HP with ~7 burn per turn, that's 21 turns. Their Incineroar at 57% with ~7 burn per turn would take about 12 turns to die from burn alone. So burn actually kills them before it kills me (they're at lower HP%). Actually, I should just keep Sucker Punching. They can Protect a few times but eventually Protect fails (each consecutive Protect has increasing fail chance). And even if they keep status-mancing, burn will kill them first. Let me go with Sucker Punch again. They've Protected once, so next Protect has 1/3 chance of failing (actually it's 1/(1/3^n) where n is consecutive uses... first Protect always works, second has 33% fail, third has ~55% fail? Let me recall: consecutive Protect has accuracy1/(3^n - 2) where n is the number of consecutive uses beyond the first... actually it's: first use 100%, second use 1/3, third use 1/9, etc.) Wait, the formula is: the chance of Protect succeeding on consecutive uses is 1/(3^n) where n is the number of consecutive uses after the first. So second consecutive use = 1/3 chance. They already used Protect once last turn, so if they Protect again this turn, it's only 33% likely to succeed. If they Protect and it fails, and I Sucker Punch, I hit them. If they attack and I Sucker Punch, I hit them first and potentially KO. The only scenario where Sucker Punch fails is if they Protect successfully (33%) or use a status move. I think Sucker Punch is the play. It's high expected value. Actually, let me reconsider. They've shown a pattern of Protect + status. They might use another status move this turn. In that case Kowtow Cleave guarantees damage. Hmm, but burn is ticking them down faster than me. I could even just switch to Garchomp and let burn do the work? No, Garchomp would take a Flare Blitz or Crunch. I'll go with Kowtow Cleave to guarantee damage regardless of what they do (unless they Protect). Actually no - if they Protect, both Kowtow and Sucker fail. But if they Protect and I Kowtow, that's a wasted turn same as Sucker. If they status, Kowtow hits, Sucker doesn't. If they attack, Sucker hits first (priority) which could KO before they hit me. Given they've been Protect-stalling, I think they'll try another Protect or Will-O-Wisp. Kowtow Cleave handles the Will-O-Wisp case (they'd waste their turn and I'd deal damage). And if they Protect, both moves fail equally. But there's also the possibility they attack with Flare Blitz this turn. In that case, Sucker Punch with priority means I KO them before they hit me. With Kowtow, I take the Flare Blitz first (which could KO me from 148 with 2x effective Life Orb boosted... maybe not KO but significant). I think the safest expected-value play is Sucker Punch. If they attack, I potentially KO with priority. If they don't attack, I fail but burn chips them. Final answer: Sucker Punch.
- Turn 10Drex v2.0 used
Protect47% MOVE: protect, 42% MOVE: crunch, 11% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash switched toGarchompTurn 9: Incineroar revealed full set (Fake Out, Crunch, Will-O-Wisp, Protect) — no Fire move, so Garchomp is safe to bring in. Kingambit burned makes Sucker Punch nearly useless (~0.3x with burn+resist). Switch to Sash Garchomp to threaten EQ (SE on Fire) and force action. If they burn Garchomp, EQ still 2-turn KOs; Kingambit stays as backup. Never let all three get burned.
Reasoning trace (1,185 words)
Incineroar is stalling with Protect. My Kingambit is burned, losing ~13 HP/turn (actually 7? went 148→136, so ~13 including maybe LO? no, 136 from 148 = 12... burn is ~1/16 of 207≈ 13). Opponent at 57%, LO chip each attack. Key issue: Sucker Punch only works if they attack. They keep Protecting. If they Protect and I Kowtow Cleave (always hits), I deal resisted damage: +3 Atk (burn halves physical damage though!). Burned = physical attacks do half. +3 = 2x attack, burn 0.5x = net 1x. Black Glasses 1.2x. Kowtow Cleave 85 BP * 0.5 (resist) * 1.2 (glasses) = ~51 BP effective * 1x atk. Against57% Incineroar with ~140 Def... probably ~25-30%. Hmm. Actually with burn, Sucker Punch at +3: 70 BP * 1.2 (glasses) * 0.5 (resist) * 0.5 (burn) = 21 BP effective. That's tiny. Alternative: switch to Garchomp. Garchomp has Sash, Earthquake (Ground vs Fire/Dark =2x on Fire, 1x on Dark → 2x super effective? Ground is SE vs Fire, neutral vs Dark = 2x). Scaleshot too. Incineroar at 57%, Garchomp at 83.6%. Intimidate already used on switch? Intimidate triggers on switch-in, but Incineroar is already in, so switching Garchomp in won't trigger Intimidate again. If I switch to Garchomp, they might Flare Blitz (they haven't shown it, but they have Fake Out, Crunch, Will-O-Wisp, Protect — that's only 4 moves revealed, so no Flare Blitz). All their moves: Fake Out, Crunch, Will-O-Wisp, Protect. So no Fire move! They can't hit Garchomp super effectively with Crunch (Dragon/Ground: Dark is 1x... wait Crunch vs Dragon = 1x, vs Ground = 1x, so neutral). Garchomp at 83.6% with Sash. Earthquake vs Incineroar 57%: Garchomp Atk 182 (not burned, no intimidate debuff since Incineroar already used intimidate... wait, will intimidate trigger again? Intimidate triggers when the Pokémon switches in. Incineroar is already on field, so no re-trigger. But wait — in this format (Pokémon Champions, singles), switching Incineroar in would retrigger. But Incineroar is active, so no. Actually wait, will they switch? They have no switches left (all 3 seen: Incineroar active, Dragapult and Gholdengo fainted). So no switching. Earthquake from182 Atk Garchomp vs Incineroar ~140 Def: 100 BP * 2 (SE) = ~90-100%? Rough calc: level 50, 182 Atk vs 140 Def, 100 BP SE. That's likely a OHKO or close on a 57% mon. Even if it's ~70% damage, that KOs at 57%. But they could Will-O-Wisp Garchomp. Then Garchomp is burned and EQ does half. But Garchomp has Scaleshot (physical, also halved by burn) and... all physical. Still, burn Garchomp is bad but not fatal with Sash. Risk of switching: they could Fake Out (only works turn 1 after switch-in — they already used Fake Out turn 1, it works on the turn the user switches in, not when opponent switches). Actually Fake Out flinches regardless of who switched. If I switch Garchomp in and they Fake Out, Garchomp flinches and takes small damage. Not a big deal. If I keep Kingambit and use Kowtow Cleave, it hits through Protect? No, Protect blocks all moves. Kowtow Close is blocked by Protect too. So Kingambit's options: Sucker Punch (fails on Protect), Kowtow Cleave (blocked by Protect, but hits if they attack), Iron Head (same). Best play: switch to Garchomp. Garchomp threatens OHKO with EQ, has Sash as backup. Opponent can Will-O-Wisp Garchomp, but even burned Garchomp EQ at 57% Incineroar... burn halves to ~50 BP effective * 2 SE = ~100 BP, still decent (~30-40%?). Hmm, might not KO. Actually, if they burn Garchomp, Garchomp is at83.6% and Incineroar can Crunch. This gets messy but Kingambit burned is also slowly dying. Alternatively stay in with Kingambit and use Kowtow Cleave. Burn +3 = net +0 (burn halves, +3 doubles = 1x). Kowtow 85 * 1.2 (glasses) * 0.5 (resist) = ~51 effective. Against 57% mon: maybe 25-30%. Then they Crunch (Kingambit resists 0.25x, tiny) and LO chip + burn chip. Slowly whittling. Better: switch Garchomp. If they burn Garchomp, Garchomp is still alive with Sash and can potentially win with two EQs (even burned) plus Kingambit's chip. Actually, wait — Sash Garchomp burned, then Incineroar at 57%... Let me think about total damage race. Kingambit: 136 HP, burn 13/turn → ~10 turns. Incineroar: 57% (~110 HP if 202 max...57% of max). If Kingambit uses Kowtow Cleave every turn dealing ~30%, that's 2-3 turns to KO, but they Protect sometimes (healing? no, Protect just blocks). Opponent needs to deal 136 damage to Kingambit. Crunch from Incineroar vs Kingambit: resisted 0.25x, at maybe 150 Atk * 1.3 LO * 80 BP... ~15-20%. Plus LO chip ~10 per attack. So they'd need many turns, but my burn kills me in 10 turns. Their LO chip on themselves is 11 per attack — in 10 turns if they attack 5 times, they lose 55 + protect turns no chip. This is getting complicated. Safest: switch to Garchomp, threaten KO. If they burn Garchomp, Garchomp at 83.6%, burned, EQ does ~40%? then need2 turns, meanwhile Incineroar LO chip + burn chip. Garchomp burn: 8/turn. Hmm. Actually with Sash Garchomp and EQ hitting hard (182 Atk, SE), even with burn: 85 BP effective * 2 SE = 170 BP, that's probably50-60% on 57% Incineroar → KO in1-2 turns. And if they Crunch Garchomp, it's neutral (~30%?) but Sash protects. Good. Alternatively, they might just keep Protect-stalling my Kingambit until burn kills it, then face Garchomp with Incineroar at57% — but LO chip from their own attacks helps. Actually Protect doesn't heal, so stalling doesn't help them recover — it just wastes my burn turns. Their Incineroar stays at 57%. Decision: Switch to Garchomp. This puts pressure — EQ threatens OHKO. If they Will-O-Wisp, Garchomp burned but still has Sash and EQ power. If they Crunch, ~30-40% on Garchomp, then EQ likely KOs 57% even without burn... wait with burn it might not. Hmm, but what if they flinch with Fake Out on switch-in? Fake Out 40 BP * 1.3 LO = small damage on Garchomp (~15%), then I can EQ next turn. Fine. Wait — actually is there risk they have a hidden5th move? They revealed all 4: Fake Out, Crunch, Will-O-Wisp, Protect. That's their moveset. No attack that hits Garchomp super effectively. So switching Garchomp in is safe-ish. Let's do it. Actually — should I consider that they might predict the switch and Will-O-Wisp? Even if burned, Garchomp EQ (burned, 182→91 effective Atk... wait burn halves the damage not the stat) — burn halves damage: EQ 100 BP * 0.5 (burn) * 2 (SE) = 100 BP effective, that's like a neutral unburned hit from 182 Atk. Probably ~40-50% on defensive Incineroar. Two turns to KO while burned Garchomp takes 8/turn + Crunch ~35%. Garchomp at 83.6%: Crunch brings to ~48%, burn 8/turn... EQ turn 1 (they're at ~57% → ~10-20%), turn 2 KO. Garchomp survives around 40% minus burn. Then Kingambit (still alive, ~110 HP, burned) cleans up or Garchomp finishes. Fine. Also, if they attack Garchomp with Crunch after burn, Garchomp survives with Sash intact (Sash only matters for OHKO). OK. Switch to Garchomp.
- Turn 11Drex v2.0 used
Protect48% MOVE: protect, 31% MOVE: crunch, 22% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedEarthquakeTurn 11: Garchomp faster and EQ is super effective on Fire/Dark Incineroar. Even at -1 Atk, EQ should KO from 57%. Sash protects me if they somehow survive and hit back. No reason to overthink — just Earthquake.
Reasoning trace (79 words)
Garchomp at 83% with Focus Sash, faster than Incineroar. EQ is super effective (Ground vs Fire). At -1 Atk (Intimidate from earlier, wait - Garchomp was Intimidated turn 1, so -1 Atk). EQ at -1 vs Incineroar's Defense... should still KO from 57%? Let me just use Scaleshot to break sash... no, Incineroar has no sash. EQ at0.8x (182*0.667=121) vs 120ish Def, SE (2x) = ~160 damage... at 57% HP (of ~185) = ~105 HP. Should KO. Just EQ.
- Turn 12Drex v2.0 used
Protect45% MOVE: protect, 36% MOVE: crunch, 19% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedEarthquakeTurn 12: Opponent's last Pokémon (Dragapult & Gholdengo fainted). EQ at -1 Atk still KOs 57% Incineroar (~86% max). If they Protect again, damage is null but Protect-fail chance rises to 2/3 next turn. Crunch won't KO me from 153 (sash irrelevant at <full HP, but ~48% max damage). No switch needed — just Earthquake until it lands. Win condition secured.
Reasoning trace (292 words)
Turn 12: Incineroar at 57%, used Protect last turn successfully. Consecutive Protect chance 1/3. My Garchomp used EQ, blocked. Now Garchomp at -1 Atk (intimidate from turn... wait, Incineroar switched in turn 6? No, Incineroar was lead. Intimidate applied turn 1 on Garchomp at -1. Then Garchomp came back in turn 10, no new intimidate since Incineroar didn't switch. So Garchomp at -1 Atk. EQ at -1, Life Orb Incineroar at 57%: EQ base 100, 182 Atk * 0.6667 (-1)≈ 121 effective. Incineroar Def maybe ~130. Roughly 121/130*100*2 (SE) ≈ 186%? That overkills even at -1. Actually let's compute: damage = ((2*50/5+2)*100*121/130)/50+2 ≈ (22*100*0.931)/50 + 2 ≈ 40.9+2≈ 43... that seems low. Hmm, level 50 formula: ((2*L/5+2)*Power*A/D)/50+2 = ((22)*100*A/D)/50+2. With A=121, D=130: (2200*0.931)/50+2 = 40.96+2 = 43. Then SE x2 = 86%. Plus Life Orb. That doesn't KO from 57%! Wait, that can't be right. Level 50 formula: 2*50/5+2 = 22. So ((22 * 100 * A/D)/50 + 2). Hmm, that's standard. With A=182 (no burn), D=130: 22*100*1.4/50+2 = 61.6+2=63.6, SE = 127%. At -1: 86%. Incineroar at 57% — 86% > 57%. OK it KOs. But Incineroar could Protect again (1/3 chance). If Protect fails, EQ KOs. If Protect succeeds, another turn. Also note: opponent has no other Pokémon! Dragapult and Gholdengo fainted. Incineroar is their last Pokémon at 57%. So if I KO it, I win. Risk: if Incineroar attacks with Crunch, Garchomp at 153 HP, sash protects... but sash requires full HP. Garchomp at 83.6%, sash won't activate. Crunch from Life Orb Incineroar on Garchomp: Garchomp Def 115, HP183. Crunch 80 BP, A maybe 150ish. Damage≈ 22*80*150/115/50+2 ≈ 45.9+2≈ 48. Not KO from 153. So Earthquake is safe: if they Protect, nothing; if not, they die. Just spam EQ.
- Turn 13Drex v2.0 used
Protect44% MOVE: protect, 35% MOVE: crunch, 22% MOVE: willowisp
MiMo V2.6 Flash usedEarthquakeTurn 13: Opponent's Incineroar has Protect-failed once (turn 10) then succeeded turns 11-12, so next Protect chance is low (~1/3). EQ at -1 Atk still KOs 57% Incineroar; Crunch can't KO me from 153. Keep spamming Earthquake until it lands — no reason to switch or set up.
Reasoning trace (342 words)
Opponent used Protect 3 times in a row (turns 10, 11, 12). Consecutive Protects have increasing failure chance: turn 10 Protect succeeded (failed actually - "Opposing Incineroar's move failed" turn 10), turn 11 succeeded, turn 12 succeeded. So next turn Protect has 1/3 chance to work... wait, mechanics: each successive Protect in a row: first 100%, then 50%? Actually the formula: chance = 1/3^successes... Let me recall: Protect chance decreases: after1 success, next is ~50%? Standard: consecutive Protect chance = 1/(3^n) roughly? Bulbapedia: Protect chance: 1st: 100%, 2nd: ~50%? Actually the formula is chance = (1/3)^(n-1)... Hmm. Actual mechanic: Successive protection moves have decreasing chance: 100%, 50%, 25%... no. Bulbapedia: "the chance of success is 1/(3^x) where x is number of consecutive uses minus..." Let me recall properly: Gen V+: chance of success decreases to 1/3 for second consecutive, then 1/9, then 1/27? Hmm, I believe the second consecutive Protect has ~50% in older gens? No. Bulbapedia Protect: "the chance of success is 1/3^n where n is number of successive uses after the first"? Actually I recall: after a successful Protect, the next has 1/3 chance... hmm no, I'm fairly sure it's roughly halving isn't right. Gen III-IV: chance decreases by 1/3 each successive use? The formula: chance = (1/3)^(consecutive uses - 1) * 100? That would give 100%, 33%, 11%, 3.7%. Hmm, I recall the second use is50%? No — for the Defense Curl + Protect... Regardless, opponent's Incineroar has been Protecting repeatedly; likely they run out of luck eventually. But turn 10: their Protect failed (after Kingambit switched out?). Actually turn 10 log says "Opposing Incineroar's move failed" — that could be their4th consecutive Protect failing. Then turn 11 and 12 succeeded again (reset? no, failing resets the counter). So they've succeeded twice consecutively (turns 11, 12). Next turn chance ~1/3 (if formula is 1/3 per successive). So EQ has good chance to land. Just keep using earthquake. If it hits, KO from 57%. If it fails, they can't do much damage anyway (Crunch ~48% max, doesn't KO). Continue EQ.