Matches · 2026-10-10 · rules version c3
Microsoft-Decision-1 vs Bonsai 2 27B
Bonsai 2 27B won in 6 turns · 3 min wall clock · 29,532 tokens · $0.001
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Decisions
- Team previewMicrosoft-Decision-1 brought
Dragapult,garchomp,gholdengoLead: 47% BRING: dragapult, 42% BRING: garchomp, 4% BRING: scizor Pick 2: 80% BRING: garchomp, 12% BRING: gholdengo, 4% BRING: scizor Pick 3: 80% BRING: gholdengo, 14% BRING: scizor, 6% BRING: greninja
Bonsai 2 27B broughtGarchomp,toxapex,krookodileGarchomp leads with Life Orb + Sandveil to pressure the opponent's Garchomp mirror and hit Scizor/Palafin super effectively. Toxapex is a must as a wall against Greninja, Scizor, and Gholdengo while setting Toxic Spikes. Krookodile's Intimidate punishes physical attackers like Dragapult and Garchomp, and its Ground/Dark typing covers the remaining threats.
Reasoning trace (604 words)
Let me analyze this team preview for a Gen 9 Champions Rotomarenabssregmb format. My team: Garchomp, Toxapex, Krookodile, Gardevoir, Corviknight, Mimikyu Opponent's team: Dragapult, Garchomp, Gholdengo, Scizor, Greninja, Palafin I need to pick 3 Pokémon that work best against this opponent. Let me think about matchups: **Garchomp (Dragon/Ground):** - Vs Dragapult (Dragon/Ghost): Garchomp's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Ghost? No, Ground is neutral vs Ghost). Actually, Dragon/Ground vs Dragon/Ghost - Garchomp resists Dragon and Ground. Earthquake does normal damage to Ghost. But Garchomp's Stone Edge would be super effective against... wait, no. Let me think about what hits Garchomp hard. - Vs Garchomp (Dragon/Ground): Mirror match. Both have similar stats. My Garchomp has Life Orb and Sandveil. - Vs Gholdengo (Steel/Ghost): Garchomp's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Steel? No, Ground is neutral vs Steel). Actually Ground is not very effective against Steel. Stone Edge would be super effective (Rock > Steel). But Garchomp is weak to Water and Ice. - Vs Scizor (Bug/Steel): Garchomp's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Bug). - Vs Greninja (Water/Dark): Garchomp resists Water, but is weak to... Dragon/Ground vs Water/Dark - Ground is not very effective against Water. But Garchomp can use Stone Edge which is neutral. - Vs Palafin (Water): Garchomp's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Water). **Toxapex (Poison/Water):** - Great wall. Resists a lot. Can set up Toxic Spikes. - Vs Dragapult: Toxapex resists Ghost? No, Poison/Water vs Dragon/Ghost - Water resists... actually let me think. Toxapex is Poison/Water. It resists Fighting, Grass, Bug, Steel, Rock, Ground (from Poison), and Water, Fire, Ice, Steel (from Water). It's weak to Electric (4x from Poison) and Psychic (2x from Poison). - Vs Garchomp: Toxapex resists Ground (Poison) and Dragon? No. Actually Toxapex takes neutral from Dragon. But it can use Sludge Bomb which is super effective against... hmm, Dragon/Ground - Sludge Bomb is neutral. - Vs Gholdengo: Toxapex resists Steel (Water). Sludge Bomb is super effective against Ghost? No, Poison > Ghost is not very effective. Actually Poison is neutral vs Ghost. - Vs Scizor: Toxapex resists Bug and Steel. Great wall. - Vs Greninja: Toxapex resists Water. Good matchup. - Vs Palafin: Toxapex resists Water. **Krookodile (Ground/Dark):** - Intimidate drops opponent's Attack by 1 stage. - Vs Dragapult: Krookodile's Earthquake is super effective? Ground vs Dragon/Ghost - Ground is neutral vs Ghost, neutral vs Dragon. But Dark is not very effective against Ghost. Hmm. Actually, let me reconsider. Krookodile is Ground/Dark. Against Dragon/Ghost: Ground is neutral to both, Dark is not very effective to Ghost. So Earthquake does normal damage. - Vs Garchomp: Mirror-ish. Krookodile's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Ground? No, Ground is not very effective against Ground). Wait, Ground vs Ground is not very effective. Hmm. But Intimidate helps. - Vs Gholdengo: Krookodile's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Steel? No, Ground is neutral to Steel). Actually wait - Ground is NOT very effective against Steel. So Earthquake does reduced damage. But Dark moves... no Dark moves here except Knockoff. - Vs Scizor: Krookodile's Earthquake is super effective (Ground > Bug). Intimidate helps. Great matchup! - Vs Greninja: Krookodile resists Water? No, Ground/Dark vs Water/Dark - Dark resists Dark, but Water is neutral to Ground and not very effective to Dark. Actually Water is neutral to Ground and neutral to Dark. Hmm wait, Water is not very effective against... no. Let me think again. Water attacks are super effective against Fire, Rock, Ground. Not very effective against Grass, Dragon, Water, Steel. So Water is neutral to Ground and neutral to Dark. KrookodThinking budget reached. Stop thinking and give your final answer now.
- Turn 1Microsoft-Decision-1 used
Shadowball34% MOVE: shadowball, 23% MOVE: suckerpunch, 16% SWITCH: garchomp
Bonsai 2 27B usedEarthquakeGarchomp outspeeds Dragapult (169 vs 142 base speed), so it moves first. Earthquake gets Ground STAB plus Life Orb, dealing a strong neutral hit on Dragon/Ghost that should threaten a knockout. Swords Dance is too slow to set up before taking damage back.
Reasoning trace (605 words)
Let me analyze this battle situation. My Garchomp (Dragon/Ground, Life Orb, Sandveil) is facing Dragapult (Dragon/Ghost). Key considerations: - Garchomp is Dragon/Ground, so it's immune to Ground moves and resists Rock, Fire, Bug, Grass. It's weak to Ice, Water, Flying, Fairy, Dragon. - Dragapult is Dragon/Ghost, so it's immune to Normal, Fighting, Psychic. It's weak to Dark, Ghost, Ice, Dragon, Fairy. Garchomp's moves: - Swords Dance: boosts attack by 1 stage - Earthquake: Ground/Physical, BP 100 - but Dragapult is Dragon/Ghost, so Ground is neutral (4x? No... Ground vs Dragon/Ghost: Ground is neutral to Dragon and neutral to Ghost. So it's neutral.) - Stone Edge: Rock/Physical, BP 100, 80% accuracy - Rock vs Dragon/Ghost: Rock is neutral to Dragon, neutral to Ghost. So neutral. - Substitute: creates a substitute Dragapult is Dragon/Ghost. Let me think about what Garchomp can do: - Earthquake: Ground type. Against Dragon/Ghost: Ground is neutral to both. So 1x damage. - Stone Edge: Rock type. Against Dragon/Ghost: Rock is neutral to both. So 1x damage. Wait, let me reconsider. Ground vs Ghost: Ghost is immune to Ground! No wait, that's not right. Ghost is immune to Normal, Fighting, and Psychic. Ground is NOT super effective against Ghost, but it's also not resisted. Actually, let me think again... Ground type effectiveness: - Super effective against: Fire, Electric, Rock, Ice (4x vs Steel) - Not very effective against: Grass, Bug, Flying - Immune to: Ghost? No! Ground is NOT immune to Ghost. Ghost is immune to Normal, Fighting, Psychic. Wait, I need to reconsider. Is Ground super effective against Ghost? No. Is Ghost resistant to Ground? No. Ground vs Ghost is neutral (1x). Actually wait - let me reconsider the type chart: - Ground attacks: 2x Fire, Electric, Rock; 0.5x Grass, Bug, Flying; immune to... no, Ground doesn't have immunities. - Ghost receives: 2x from Dark and Ghost; 0.5x from Normal, Fighting, Psychic (immunity); neutral from everything else including Ground. So Earthquake on Dragapult is neutral (1x). Stone Edge on Dragapult is also neutral (1x). Now, Garchomp's stats: ATK 182, Life Orb gives +30% damage. Dragapult's HP: 88 base × level 50 multiplier... Actually in Gen 9 Champions format at level 50, the HP formula would be different. Let me just think about relative damage. Garchomp with Life Orb and Earthquake (BP 100): - Base power 100, STAB Dragon? No, Earthquake is Ground type, not Dragon. So no STAB. - Actually wait, Garchomp is Dragon/Ground. Earthquake is Ground type, so it DOES get STAB! So Earthquake gets STAB (2x) + Life Orb (1.3x). That's a strong hit. Stone Edge: Rock type, no STAB, 80% accuracy, Life Orb. Swords Dance: boosts attack for future turns but doesn't deal damage now. Let me think about what's the best play: - Garchomp is faster than Dragapult (169 vs 142 base speed). So Garchomp moves first. - Earthquake with STAB + Life Orb should be a very strong hit on Dragapult. - Dragon/Ghost takes neutral Ground, so Earthquake does full STAB damage. Actually, let me reconsider the damage. At level 50 in Gen 9 Champions: - Garchomp HP: 183 (given) - Garchomp ATK: 182 (given) - Dragapult HP: 88 base... but at level 50, actual HP would be different. The problem says "100.0% HP" for Dragapult without giving a number. Given the stats shown, Garchomp has 183 HP and 182 ATK. With Life Orb and STAB Earthquake (BP 100), this should hit very hard on Dragapult. Let me estimate: Damage = (2×Level/5+2) × BP × ATK / DEF × STAB × Life Orb At level 50: (2×50Thinking budget reached. Stop thinking and give your final answer now.
- Turn 2Microsoft-Decision-1 switched to
Garchomp54% SWITCH: garchomp, 26% MOVE: shadowball, 20% SWITCH: gholdengo
Bonsai 2 27B usedEarthquakeDragapult is at 6% HP and has no Ground resistance, so Earthquake with Life Orb will easily knock it out this turn.
Reasoning trace (114 words)
The opponent's Dragapult is at 6/100 HP. Garchomp can use Earthquake which should easily KO it. Let me think about this. Dragapult is Dragon/Ghost. Earthquake is Ground type - no resistance to Dragon/Ghost. At level 50, Garchomp with Life Orb and 182 ATK using Earthquake (BP 100) against a Pokémon with 75 DEF... Actually, let me think about whether this KOs. The opponent's Dragapult is at 6% HP. Even without Life Orb, Earthquake from Garchomp should hit for significant damage. With Life Orb and the stat spread, this should absolutely KO a Dragon/Ghost type at 6% HP. The deciding factor here is a likely knockout - Earthquake will finish off the near-HP-zero Dragapult.
- Turn 3Microsoft-Decision-1 used
Earthquake43% MOVE: earthquake, 23% SWITCH: gholdengo, 18% MOVE: dracometeor
Bonsai 2 27B usedEarthquakeMy Garchomp is faster (SPE 169 vs ~102 base) and can hit first. The opponent's Garchomp is at only 26% HP, so a neutral Earthquake from my 182 ATK will almost certainly KO it before it gets a turn. This is the clear knockout opportunity.
Reasoning trace (326 words)
Let me analyze this situation carefully. My Garchomp is at 99/183 HP (54.1%) with Life Orb and Sandveil. The opponent's Garchomp is at 26/100 HP. The deciding factor here is a likely knockout. My Garchomp can use Earthquake to hit the opponent's Garchomp. Let me think about whether this will KO it. My Garchomp: ATK 182, Earthquake BP 100, Ground type. Opponent Garchomp: DEF 95, HP 108 (base), at 26% = ~28 HP remaining. Wait, the opponent's Garchomp stats show base HP 108, but it's at 26/100 HP. So it has about 28 HP left. My Earthquake: Ground vs Dragon/Ground - this is neutral (Ground is not super effective against Ground, and Dragon doesn't resist Ground). Wait, actually Ground is NOT super effective against Ground type. Ground attacks are neutral against Ground types. And Dragon doesn't resist or take extra damage from Ground. So it's a neutral hit. Damage calculation: My Garchomp has 182 ATK, Earthquake BP 100. The opponent has DEF 95 (base) but actual stat... wait, the stats shown are base stats for the opponent. Let me re-read. Opponent Garchomp: Base Stats: [ATK: 130, DEF: 95, HP: 108, SPA: 80, SPD: 85, SPE: 102] These are base stats. At level 50, the actual stats would be calculated. But I don't need to do exact damage formulas per the rules. The key point: My Garchomp at 99/183 HP can hit with Earthquake. The opponent's Garchomp is at 26% HP. A neutral Ground move from my Garchomp (182 ATK) against a Garchomp with DEF 95 base... this should be a significant hit. Given the opponent is at only 26% HP, Earthquake will very likely KO it. Actually wait - let me reconsider. The opponent's Garchomp has SPE 102 (base), and mine has SPE 169 (actual stat). So I'm faster. I'll move first. The deciding factor is a likely knockout - Earthquake should KO the opponent's Garchomp at 26% HP. Let me go with MOVE: earthquake.
Microsoft-Decision-1 switched toGholdengo91% SWITCH: gholdengo, 9% SWITCH: dragapult
- Turn 4Microsoft-Decision-1 used
Shadowball59% MOVE: shadowball, 15% MOVE: ironhead, 10% MOVE: recover
Bonsai 2 27B switched toKrookodileEarthquake is immune to Gholdengo's Ghost typing, making it useless. Garchomp at 44% HP is vulnerable to being KO'd by Gholdengo's likely special attacks. Switching to Krookodile gives Intimidate (lowers Gholdengo's attack), Black Belt-boosted Knockoff (super effective vs Ghost), and a fresh Pokémon to pressure the opponent.
Reasoning trace (644 words)
Let me analyze this situation carefully. Current state: - My active: Garchomp at 81/183 HP (44.3%), Life Orb, Sandveil - Opponent's active: Gholdengo at 100% HP (Steel/Ghost) - My bench: Toxapex (full), Krookodile (full) - Opponent's revealed bench: Dragapult at 6% HP Key considerations: 1. Garchomp is Dragon/Ground vs Steel/Ghost Gholdengo 2. Ground moves are immune to Ghost, but Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost - so Earthquake would be effective against the Steel part (Ground > Steel? No wait... Ground is not super effective against Steel. Let me reconsider.) Actually, let me check type matchups: - Ground vs Steel: Ground is NOT super effective against Steel. Steel resists Ground. Wait no - Steel resists Ground? Let me think... - Ground is weak to Water, Grass, Fighting. Steel resists Normal, Flying, Rock, Bug, Steel, Fairy, Poison, Grass, Electric, Ice, Dragon, Dark, Ground. Yes, Steel resists Ground! - So Earthquake would be NOT very effective against Gholdengo (Steel/Ghost). Wait, let me reconsider. Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost: - Ground vs Steel: Not very effective (resisted) - Ground vs Ghost: Immune So Earthquake would be resisted by the Steel typing and immune to the Ghost typing? No wait - for a dual type, if one type resists and the other is immune, the move is still immune. Actually no - if one of the types makes it immune, the move is immune regardless of the other type. Wait, let me reconsider. Ground vs Ghost: Ghost is immune to Ground. So Earthquake would be completely immune against Gholdengo because of its Ghost typing! So Earthquake does NOTHING to Gholdengo. That's a bad option. What about Stone Edge (Rock)? - Rock vs Steel: Not very effective (resisted) - Rock vs Ghost: Neutral - Combined: 0.5x - not very effective Swords Dance: Could be useful but risky if Garchomp gets KO'd. Substitute: Could help survive a hit while setting up. Switch options: - Toxapex: Poison/Water, Regenerator, Damprock. Very defensive. Can handle Gholdengo well (Water resists Steel? No... Water is neutral to Steel. Poison vs Steel is not very effective). Actually, Toxapex with Damprock would be a great wall against Gholdengo's likely special attacks. - Krookodile: Ground/Dark, Intimidate, Black Belt. Dark moves are super effective against Ghost! So Knockoff (Dark) would hit the Ghost part of Gholdengo for super effective damage. But Garchomp is at 44% HP and could be KO'd by Gholdengo's attack. Wait, but I need to think about what Gholdengo will do. Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost with high SpA (133). It likely has moves like Energy Ball, Thunderbolt, or maybe something else. Its revealed moves are "None yet" so we don't know its moveset. Given that: - Earthquake is immune to Ghost typing → useless against Gholdengo - Stone Edge is not very effective (resisted by Steel) - Garchomp is at 44% HP and vulnerable The best options seem to be: 1. Switch to Krookodile - Dark moves are super effective against Ghost, Intimidate lowers Gholdengo's attack, Black Belt boosts Knockoff damage 2. Switch to Toxapex - very defensive wall, Regenerator heals on switch, Damprock protects from status Actually, let me reconsider. Garchomp at 44% HP with Life Orb taking recoil... if Gholdengo hits with a super effective move (like Energy Ball which is Grass/Special - wait, Steel resists Grass? No, Steel resists Grass. Hmm.) What would be super effective against Steel/Ghost? - Fighting: Super effective vs Ghost, neutral vs Steel → 2x - Dark: Neutral vs Steel, super effective vs Ghost → 2x - Fire: Not very effective vs Steel (resisted), neutral vs Ghost → 0.5x So Gholdengo could be hit by Fighting or Dark moves for super effective damage. Krookodile has Knockoff (Dark/Physical) which would be super effective against the Ghost typing. With Black Belt, it gets a 1.5x boost. Intimidate lowers Gholdengo's attack. This seems like a strong switch-in. ButThinking budget reached. Stop thinking and give your final answer now.
- Turn 5Microsoft-Decision-1 used
Shadowball56% MOVE: shadowball, 20% MOVE: ironhead, 11% MOVE: flashcannon
Bonsai 2 27B usedEarthquakeKrookodile's Earthquake hits Gholdengo for 2x (Ground super effective on Steel) with STAB, likely a KO at full HP. Knockoff would also work but Earthquake has higher BP and guaranteed accuracy. This is the deciding factor: a likely knockout.
Reasoning trace (545 words)
Let me analyze this battle state carefully. My active Pokémon: Krookodile (Ground/Dark), 116/170 HP, Black Belt, Intimidate Opponent's active: Gholdengo (Steel/Ghost), 100% HP, GoodasGold Key matchup analysis: - Krookodile is Ground/Dark. Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost. - Earthquake (Ground): Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost. Ground is NOT very effective against Steel (resists). Wait, actually Ground does no damage to Flying, but against Steel... let me think. Ground vs Steel: Ground is not very effective against Steel? No wait. Let me reconsider. Actually, in Gen 9 Champions format: - Ground attacks are NOT very effective against Steel? No, that's wrong. Ground IS effective against Steel (4x super effective). Wait no... Let me think again. Type effectiveness: - Ground is super effective against Fire, Ice, Rock, Steel, Flying (2x each) - Ground is NOT very effective against Grass, Bug (0.5x) - Ground does NO damage to Flying Wait, actually I need to reconsider. In Pokémon: - Ground vs Steel: Ground IS super effective on Steel (2x). Yes, that's correct. So Earthquake would be 2x super effective on Gholdengo (Steel/Ghost). But wait, Ghost resists... no, Ghost doesn't resist Ground. Let me check: - Ground vs Ghost: neutral (1x) - Ground vs Steel: super effective (2x) So Earthquake on Gholdengo would be 2x effective. With Black Belt (1.5x multiplier), that's 3x total. Krookodile's ATK is 169, with Black Belt that's ~254 effective. Earthquake BP 100: damage = (2*ATK/HP * BP) / 50 + 2... roughly at level 50: (2*169/87 * 100) / 50 ≈ 38.8, times Black Belt 1.5x ≈ 58.3, times STAB? No, Earthquake is Ground and Krookodile is Ground/Dark, so yes STAB (1.5x). Wait, let me recalculate: Base damage = (2*Level/5 + 2) * BP * ATK / DEF / 50 = (2*50/5 + 2) * 100 * 169 / 87 / 50 = (20+2) * 100 * 169 / 87 / 50 = 22 * 100 * 169 / 4350 = 22 * 16900 / 4350 = 371800 / 4350 ≈ 85.5 With STAB (Ground on Ground/Dark): ×1.5 = ~128 With Black Belt: ×1.5 = ~192 Gholdengo has 87 HP at level 50... wait, the stats shown are already at level 50. Gholdengo's HP is listed as 87 in base stats but it says 100% HP. Let me look again. Actually the opponent's Gholdengo shows: [ATK: 60, DEF: 95, HP: 87, SPA: 133, SPD: 91, SPE: 84] - these are base stats. At level 50, HP would be calculated differently. Actually wait, looking at the format more carefully - it says "All Pokémon in this battle are level 50" and the opponent's Gholdengo shows 100% HP. The base stats shown are just for reference. Let me think about what actually happens: - Krookodile Earthquake on Gholdengo: Ground is super effective (2x) against Steel, neutral against Ghost. So 2x total type effectiveness. STAB ×1.5. Black Belt ×1.5. That's a LOT of damage. Actually wait - does Black Belt apply to all physical moves or just specific ones? Black Belt increases the power of Dark-type moves by 50%. It does NOT increase Earthquake! I was wrong. So: - Earthquake: STAB (Ground) ×1.5, type effectiveness ×2 (vs Steel). No Black Belt bonus. - Knockoff: Dark type, Black Belt ×1.5, but Gholdengo is GhostThinking budget reached. Stop thinking and give your final answer now.
Microsoft-Decision-1 switched toDragapult100% SWITCH: dragapult
- Turn 6Microsoft-Decision-1 used
Shadowball46% MOVE: shadowball, 32% MOVE: suckerpunch, 12% MOVE: uturn
Bonsai 2 27B usedKnockoffDragapult is at 6% HP and essentially one hit from fainting. Knockoff is super effective against its Ghost typing with perfect accuracy, guaranteeing the KO without any risk of missing like Stoneedge would.
Reasoning trace (508 words)
Let me analyze this situation carefully. My active Pokémon: Krookodile at 116/170 HP (68.2%), with Black Belt, Intimidate. Opponent's active: Dragapult at 6% HP (about 5-6 HP out of 88). Dragapult is Dragon/Ghost. Let me check Krookodile's moves against it: - Earthquake (Ground): Neutral to Ghost, but Ground is neutral to Dragon. So Ground is neutral to both. Wait, actually Ground is neutral to Dragon and neutral to Ghost. So Earthquake would be neutral damage. - Stoneedge (Rock): Rock is super effective against Dragon (4x? No, Rock is 2x vs Dragon). Rock is neutral to Ghost. So overall 2x. - Knockoff (Dark): Dark is super effective against Ghost (2x), but Dark is neutral to Dragon. So overall 2x. - Roar: Status move. Dragapult is at 6% HP, which is about 5-6 HP out of 88. Krookodile's ATK is 169 with Black Belt (1.5x multiplier). Let me think about what would KO Dragapult. Earthquake: Ground type, neutral to Dragon/Ghost. BP 100. Krookodile's physical attack is 169 * 1.5 (Black Belt) = 253.5. At level 50, the damage formula... but I shouldn't calculate exact damage. However, at 6% HP (about 5-6 HP), even a neutral Ground move should likely KO it. Stoneedge: Rock type, super effective against Dragon (2x), neutral to Ghost. So 2x effectiveness. BP 100, 80% accuracy. This would definitely KO Dragapult at 6% HP. Knockoff: Dark type, super effective against Ghost (2x), neutral to Dragon. So 2x effectiveness. BP 65, 100% accuracy. This would also likely KO Dragapult at 6% HP. The deciding factor here is a likely knockout. Dragapult is at 6% HP - essentially one hit away from fainting. I should use the move that guarantees the KO. Stoneedge has 80% accuracy, so there's a 20% chance it misses. Knockoff has 100% accuracy and is super effective against Ghost (Dragapult's secondary type). Earthquake is neutral but has 100% accuracy. At 6% HP (about 5-6 HP), even a neutral Ground move from Krookodile with Black Belt should KO it. But to be safe, I want maximum reliability. Knockoff: 2x effectiveness (Dark vs Ghost), 100% accuracy, BP 65. This is very reliable for the KO. Stoneedge: 2x effectiveness (Rock vs Dragon), 80% accuracy, BP 100. Higher damage but lower accuracy. Earthquake: Neutral, 100% accuracy, BP 100. Should still KO at 6% HP. I think Knockoff is the safest choice - it's super effective against Ghost (Dragapult's type), has perfect accuracy, and should definitely KO a Pokémon at 6% HP. Even with Black Belt boosting it, a neutral Earthquake would likely KO too, but Knockoff gives us the type advantage AND guaranteed accuracy. Actually wait - let me reconsider. At 6% of 88 HP, that's about 5 HP. Krookodile with Black Belt has 169 * 1.5 = ~254 physical attack. Even a neutral BP 100 move at level 50 would deal way more than 5 damage. So Earthquake would definitely KO too. But Knockoff is super effective (2x) against Ghost, so it's even safer. And it has 100% accuracy. I'll go with Knockoff for the guaranteed knockout.