Matches · 2026-10-08 · rules version s4

Muse Spark 1.3 vs Gemma 4 31B

Player 1
Muse Spark 1.3's team
autopilot 0%
Player 2 · winner
Gemma 4 31B's team
autopilot 0%

Gemma 4 31B won in 20 turns · 4 min wall clock · 109,157 tokens · $0.006

The replay player loads from play.pokemonshowdown.com. The full battle log is below.

Decisions

  1. Team preview
    Gemma 4 31B led with Greattusk1,875 tok · 4.7 s

    Great Tusk is the most reliable lead for setting Stealth Rock and handling opposing Great Tusk or Ogerpon-W.

    Reasoning trace (51 words)
    The opponent has a standard Gen 9 OU core (Tusk, Gholdengo, Pult, Gambit, Gliscor, Ogerpon-W). Great Tusk is the most reliable lead for setting Stealth Rock and handling opposing Tusk or Ogerpon-W. Iron Valiant is a strong alternative for pressure, but Tusk provides better utility early on.
    
    Deciding factor: Utility/Lead consistency.
    Muse Spark 1.3 led with Dragapult1,739 tok · 6.7 s · $0.0002

    Dragapult outspeeds their entire team and can U-turn for momentum, avoiding a bad lead matchup into faster threats.

  2. Turn 1
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Willowisp1,719 tok · 2.5 s · $0.0002

    Dragapult outspeeds Great Tusk, so burning it with Will-O-Wisp cripples its Attack before it moves.

    Gemma 4 31B switched to Gholdengo1,906 tok · 5.2 s

    Dragapult is significantly faster than Great Tusk and can deal heavy damage. Gholdengo is the best switch-in here as it resists Ghost-type attacks and can threaten Dragapult back.

    Reasoning trace (63 words)
    Dragapult is significantly faster than Great Tusk and can hit it hard with Shadow Ball or Dragon-type moves. Great Tusk cannot outspeed or reliably OHKO Dragapult. Switching to a resist or a check is necessary; Gholdengo is a great switch-in as it resists Ghost and is immune to Fighting (though Pult doesn't usually run Fighting).
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup to switch out of.
  3. Turn 2
    Gemma 4 31B used Shadowball1,910 tok · 4.0 s

    The deciding factor is speed. Gholdengo is Choice Scarfed, making it faster than Dragapult, and Shadow Ball is the most reliable move to deal massive damage to it.

    Reasoning trace (36 words)
    The deciding factor is speed. Gholdengo is Choice Scarfed, making it faster than Dragapult (base 142 speed). Shadow Ball is the most reliable and powerful move to hit Dragapult for heavy damage or a potential knockout.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Uturn2,013 tok · 4.1 s · $0.0002

    Gholdengo is immune to Will-O-Wisp and resists Dragon, so staying in to attack is a bad matchup. Dragapult is much faster, so U-turn keeps momentum and pivots safely.

    Reasoning trace (17 words)
    Evaluating type matchups and momentum to choose between attacking Gholdengo with Shadow Ball or switching via U-turn.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Kingambit1,778 tok · 3.2 s · $0.0001

    Opponent Gholdengo just KO'd Dragapult with Shadow Ball. Kingambit resists Ghost and Steel, giving a safe switch-in to threaten back.

  4. Turn 3
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Kowtowcleave2,111 tok · 4.4 s · $0.0002

    Kingambit is slower but resists Shadow Ball, and boosted Kowtow Cleave should knock out frail Gholdengo.

    Reasoning trace (11 words)
    Analyzing Pokémon type matchups and damage calculations for Kingambit versus Gholdengo.
    Gemma 4 31B switched to Iron1,955 tok · 4.7 s

    Gholdengo is extremely vulnerable to Kingambit's Kowtow Cleave. Switching to Iron Valiant provides a strong offensive counter with Close Combat.

    Reasoning trace (59 words)
    The opponent has sent in Kingambit. My active Pokémon is Choice Scarf Gholdengo. Kingambit is a massive threat to Gholdengo with Kowtow Cleave. I need to switch to a counter. Iron Valiant or Great Tusk are good options, but Iron Valiant's Close Combat is a guaranteed OHKO or near-OHKO on Kingambit.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup to switch out of.
  5. Turn 4
    Gemma 4 31B used Closecombat2,025 tok · 2.3 s
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Suckerpunch2,076 tok · 2.6 s · $0.0001

    Kingambit is much slower than Booster Iron Valiant and risks being KOed by Fighting move, so priority is deciding factor to pick up the KO on 79% HP.

    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gholdengo2,166 tok · 3.7 s · $0.0001

    Gholdengo is immune to Close Combat and resists Fairy, so it walls Iron Valiant completely.

    Reasoning trace (12 words)
    Evaluating type matchups and switch options against Iron Valiant after Kingambit fainted.
  6. Turn 5
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Nastyplot2,099 tok · 2.8 s · $0.0002

    Iron Valiant's revealed Close Combat is immune into Gholdengo's Ghost typing, so it cannot touch me. This is a free setup turn.

    Gemma 4 31B switched to Great2,419 tok · 8.4 s

    Iron Valiant is in a bad matchup against Gholdengo, as it cannot hit it with Close Combat and is vulnerable to Steel moves. Switching to Great Tusk provides a strong counter that can threaten Gholdengo with Earthquake.

    Reasoning trace (127 words)
    Opponent has Gholdengo active. My active is Iron Valiant (damaged, -1 Def, -1 SpD). Gholdengo is a bad matchup for Iron Valiant (Steel resists Fairy/Fighting, Ghost is immune to Fighting). I need to switch to a counter. Great Tusk or Kingambit are options, but Gholdengo can hit them. Ogerpon-Wellspring or Slowking-Galar are safer. Slowking-Galar resists Steel and can handle Gholdengo well. However, Great Tusk is the best answer to Gholdengo's Steel moves and can threaten it with Earthquake. Wait, Gholdengo is a Ghost type, so Earthquake hits it. Let's check the bench. Great Tusk is a strong choice.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup. Iron Valiant cannot hit Gholdengo effectively and is vulnerable to its Steel/Ghost attacks. Switching to Great Tusk provides a strong offensive threat and better bulk.
  7. Turn 6
    Gemma 4 31B switched to Slowking2,296 tok · 5.4 s

    Opposing Gholdengo is at +2 Special Attack, making it a massive threat to Great Tusk. Slowking-Galar is the best switch-in to absorb the hit and pivot.

    Reasoning trace (70 words)
    The opponent's Gholdengo has a +2 Special Attack boost from Nasty Plot. Great Tusk cannot take a hit from a +2 Gholdengo (likely Make It Rain or Shadow Ball). I need to switch to a Pokémon that can handle Gholdengo or force it out. Slowking-Galar is a good switch-in due to its high Special Defense and ability to pivot with Chilly Reception.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup to switch out of.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Makeitrain2,330 tok · 9.0 s · $0.0003

    At +2 SpA, Make It Rain should knock out frail specially defensive Great Tusk before it can hit our Ground weakness.

    Reasoning trace (14 words)
    Analyzing type matchups and abilities to choose the optimal move against Gholdengo at +2.
  8. Turn 7
    Gemma 4 31B used Chillyreception2,295 tok · 4.8 s

    Slowking-Galar is at critical HP and cannot survive another Make It Rain from +1 Gholdengo. Chilly Reception allows for a safe pivot to a teammate while providing chip damage and snow.

    Reasoning trace (46 words)
    Opposing Gholdengo is at +1 SpA and Slowking-Galar is very low (27.7% HP). Gholdengo's Make It Rain will likely OHKO Slowking-Galar. Slowking-Galar's Chilly Reception allows for a safe pivot while setting snow.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup/low HP. Chilly Reception provides a safe switch to a counter.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Shadowball2,238 tok · 6.3 s · $0.0003

    Gholdengo outspeeds Slowking-Galar and Shadow Ball is super-effective vs Psychic, so it should secure the KO at 28% HP.

    Reasoning trace (17 words)
    Evaluating damage and type matchups to confirm Make It Rain will KO Slowking-Galar before it can act.
    Gemma 4 31B switched to Great2,227 tok · 6.0 s

    Slowking-Galar has fainted, and the opponent's Gholdengo is at +1 Special Attack. Great Tusk is the best switch-in to threaten Gholdengo with Earthquake.

    Reasoning trace (81 words)
    The opponent's Gholdengo is at +1 Special Attack and just knocked out Slowking-Galar. I need a safe switch-in. Great Tusk is the best option here to handle Gholdengo with Earthquake or to scout with Knock Off, as it resists nothing but is bulky enough to take a hit and threaten a KO. Kingambit is also an option, but Tusk provides better utility and immediate pressure.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup to switch out of (Slowking fainted, need a switch-in for +1 Gholdengo).
  9. Turn 8
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gliscor2,268 tok · 3.7 s · $0.0003

    Great Tusk threatens a Ground KO on Gholdengo and may outspeed with Booster Energy, so switch to immune wall Gliscor.

    Reasoning trace (15 words)
    Evaluating damage and speed matchup to confirm Gholdengo can KO Great Tusk before being hit.
    Gemma 4 31B used Earthquake2,235 tok · 5.5 s

    Opposing Gholdengo is at +1 Special Attack and poses a huge threat. Great Tusk's Earthquake is super effective against Gholdengo's Steel typing and should deal massive damage or secure a knockout.

    Reasoning trace (63 words)
    The opponent's Gholdengo is at +1 Special Attack. Great Tusk is a physical wall but takes significant damage from Make It Rain or Shadow Ball. Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost, and Great Tusk's Earthquake is super effective against Steel.
    
    Deciding factor: Likely knockout. Earthquake deals massive damage to Gholdengo, and since Gholdengo is not Terastallized, it's the most direct way to remove the +1 threat.
  10. Turn 9
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Protect2,104 tok · 3.2 s · $0.0002

    Opponent Great Tusk is locked into Earthquake which Gliscor is immune to, so this is a free turn. Protect activates Poison Heal and scouts for Ice coverage.

    Gemma 4 31B switched to Ogerpon2,352 tok · 6.5 s

    Great Tusk is completely walled by Gliscor and cannot use Earthquake. Ogerpon-Wellspring is the best switch-in here to threaten Gliscor with Grass-type attacks.

    Reasoning trace (82 words)
    The opponent has Gliscor active, which is immune to Earthquake. Gliscor is currently poisoned (TOX). Great Tusk cannot hit Gliscor with Earthquake. Knock Off is the best offensive option to remove Gliscor's item (likely Toxic Orb, though it's already poisoned, so maybe Heavy-Duty Boots or Flame Orb). However, Gliscor is a wall and will likely stall or use Toxic/Earthquake/U-turn. Switching to Ogerpon-Wellspring provides a strong offensive threat (Ivy Cudgel) that Gliscor cannot easily wall.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup (Great Tusk vs Gliscor).
  11. Turn 10
    Gemma 4 31B used Knockoff2,344 tok · 6.5 s

    Gliscor is already poisoned and just used Protect. Knock Off is the best move to remove its item (likely Heavy-Duty Boots) and chip away at its health while maintaining pressure.

    Reasoning trace (94 words)
    Opposing Gliscor is poisoned (tox) and just used Protect. Ogerpon-Wellspring is active. Gliscor is a bad matchup for Ogerpon if it has Toxic or Earthquake, but Ogerpon is faster and can hit it with Grass moves. However, Gliscor often carries Toxic or Earthquake. Since Gliscor is already poisoned, it's on a timer. Knock Off is useful to remove Gliscor's item (likely Toxic Orb, though it's already poisoned, so maybe Heavy-Duty Boots or Flame Orb).
    
    Deciding factor: Gliscor's item and the need to maintain momentum. Knock Off is the safest and most disruptive play here.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gholdengo2,355 tok · 8.2 s · $0.0003

    Gliscor's Earthquake is resisted by Grass and Ogerpon outspeeds and threatens with Ivy Cudgel/Play Rough, so this is a bad matchup to stay in.

    Reasoning trace (15 words)
    Analyzing Gliscor versus Ogerpon Wellspring type matchups and speed to determine the unfavorable battle outcome.
  12. Turn 11
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Ogerpon2,230 tok · 3.0 s · $0.0003

    Gholdengo at 9.8% will die to any attack from Ogerpon, so must switch. Opponent's Ivy Cudgel is Water-type, which my Ogerpon-Wellspring absorbs with Water Absorb.

    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,283 tok · 4.5 s

    Opposing Gholdengo is at 10% HP and is outsped by Ogerpon-Wellspring. Ivy Cudgel will easily secure the knockout.

    Reasoning trace (46 words)
    Opposing Gholdengo is at 10% HP. Ogerpon-Wellspring is active and has several moves that will easily knock it out. Ivy Cudgel, Horn Leech, and Knock Off are all viable, but Ivy Cudgel has the highest base power and is a guaranteed KO.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout.
  13. Turn 12
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gliscor2,576 tok · 5.6 s · $0.0003

    Mirror Ogerpon is a speed-tie coin flip where losing means taking huge damage, so avoid the bad matchup and pivot to Gliscor which resists and can stall.

    Reasoning trace (16 words)
    Analyzing a Pokémon speed tie and type matchup to choose between Ivy Cudgel and Play Rough.
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,711 tok · 14.6 s

    I have a significant speed advantage in this Ogerpon-Wellspring mirror match. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest neutral move to apply maximum pressure.

    Reasoning trace (259 words)
    The current matchup is Ogerpon-Wellspring vs. Ogerpon-Wellspring. I have a speed advantage (350 vs base 110, likely meaning I'm faster or at least equal if they are max speed). Both are Grass/Water. Ivy Cudgel (Grass) is neutral, but Horn Leech provides recovery. However, the opponent has a Gholdengo at 10% and a Gliscor at 100%.
    
    Deciding factor: speed and matchup. Since I am faster and it's a mirror match, I can chip away or pivot. However, Ivy Cudgel is the strongest move. But wait, the opponent's Ogerpon is likely to use Ivy Cudgel or Knock Off.
    
    Actually, looking at the stats, my Ogerpon is significantly faster (350 vs base 110). I can hit them hard. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest move.
    
    Wait, looking at the opponent's team, they have Gholdengo (10%) and Gliscor. If I use U-turn, I can bring in a better counter if they switch. But since I'm faster, I can just attack.
    
    Ivy Cudgel is the strongest move.
    
    Wait, let's check the types. Grass/Water vs Grass/Water. Ivy Cudgel (Grass) is neutral.
    
    Is there a better play? If I use Ivy Cudgel, I do significant damage. If I U-turn, I maintain momentum.
    
    Actually, the most consistent play in a mirror match when faster is to attack or pivot. Given the opponent's remaining team (Gholdengo 10%, Gliscor, Great Tusk), Ogerpon is a threat to Tusk but not to Gholdengo or Gliscor.
    
    Let's go with Ivy Cudgel to put pressure on the mirror.
    
    Wait, I just noticed the opponent's Ogerpon came in on Turn 11.
    
    Let's use Ivy Cudgel.
  14. Turn 13
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Ogerpon2,159 tok · 3.5 s · $0.0002

    Opponent Ogerpon threatens Gliscor with super-effective Ivy Cudgel, a bad matchup. My Ogerpon-Wellspring is immune via Water Absorb as shown last time.

    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,441 tok · 5.4 s

    Gliscor is at 48% HP and is weak to Grass. Ivy Cudgel is a high-BP super-effective move that should secure the knockout.

    Reasoning trace (63 words)
    Opposing Gliscor is poisoned and at 48% HP. Ogerpon-Wellspring is active. Gliscor is 4x weak to Ice (not available) and 2x weak to Grass and Water. Ivy Cudgel (Grass) is super effective. Gliscor often uses Protect or Toxic, but Ogerpon is faster and can likely secure a knockout or heavy damage.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest super-effective move available.
  15. Turn 14
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Ivycudgel2,695 tok · 6.7 s · $0.0003

    Mirror Ogerpon is a speed tie, and Tera Water Ivy would be resisted, so staying with base STAB Ivy Cudgel keeps neutral damage without wasting Tera.

    Reasoning trace (38 words)
    Analyzing a Pokémon damage and speed tie matchup between two Ogerpon-Wellspring at full HP with equal base speed and comparing move power and typing.Evaluating type matchups and coverage options to avoid the mirror speed tie and water resistance.
    Gemma 4 31B used Knockoff3,171 tok · 26.7 s

    The opponent's Ogerpon-Wellspring has Water Absorb, making the Water-type Ivy Cudgel useless. Knock Off is the best choice to deal neutral damage and remove the opponent's item.

    Reasoning trace (506 words)
    The current matchup is Ogerpon-Wellspring vs. Ogerpon-Wellspring. Both have the same typing and ability. My Ogerpon is at 100% HP, and the opponent's is also at 100% HP. I have a speed advantage (350 vs 110 base, though the stats provided are actual stats, so 350 is definitely faster than the opponent's likely speed).
    
    Wait, looking at the stats:
    My Ogerpon: SPE 350
    Opponent Ogerpon: Base SPE 110 (Actual stat not listed, but 350 is extremely high, likely due to some modifier or just the way the stats are presented in this format).
    
    Actually, looking at the "RECENT TURNS", the opponent has been switching between Ogerpon-Wellspring and Gliscor.
    
    If I use Ivy Cudgel (Grass), it's neutral. If I use Knock Off, it's neutral. If I use U-turn, I can pivot.
    
    The opponent's team consists of:
    - Gholdengo (10% HP)
    - Gliscor (48% HP, Poisoned)
    - Great Tusk (Not yet seen)
    - Ogerpon-Wellspring (Active)
    
    My team consists of:
    - Ogerpon-Wellspring (Active)
    - Great Tusk
    - Gholdengo
    - Kingambit
    - Iron Valiant
    
    Since it's a mirror match and I have the speed advantage, Knock Off is a strong choice to remove the opponent's item (likely Wellspring Mask, though the game says "unknown_item"). However, U-turn allows me to maintain momentum and bring in a counter if they switch.
    
    But wait, if I use Knock Off, I deal decent damage and remove the item. If I use Ivy Cudgel, it's just damage.
    
    Let's consider the opponent's likely moves. Ogerpon-Wellspring usually runs Ivy Cudgel, Power Whip/Horn Leech, Knock Off, and U-turn/Swords Dance.
    
    If I use Knock Off, I hit for neutral damage. If they switch to Gholdengo, I hit it hard (though Gholdengo is at 10% and would likely faint). If they switch to Great Tusk, I hit it for neutral damage.
    
    The deciding factor here is the mirror match and the need to chip away or remove items. Knock Off is generally the best move in a mirror match to disrupt the opponent.
    
    Wait, looking at the "RECENT TURNS" again:
    Turn 11: Opposing Ogerpon-Wellspring came in. Your Ogerpon used Ivy Cudgel. Opposing Ogerpon was immune. (Wait, Ivy Cudgel is Grass/Water. Why was it immune? Ah, maybe the user used the Water-type Ivy Cudgel and the opponent has Water Absorb).
    Turn 12: Opposing Gliscor came in. Your Ogerpon used Ivy Cudgel. It was super effective. (This was the Grass-type Ivy Cudgel).
    Turn 13: Opposing Ogerpon-Wellspring came in. Your Ogerpon used Ivy Cudgel. Opposing Ogerpon was immune. (Again, Water-type Ivy Cudgel vs Water Absorb).
    
    So, my Ogerpon is using the Water-type Ivy Cudgel, and the opponent's Ogerpon has Water Absorb. I should NOT use Ivy Cudgel if it's the Water-type. But the move is just "ivycudgel". In Gen 9, Ivy Cudgel's type depends on the mask. Wellspring Mask makes it Water.
    
    Since the opponent has Water Absorb, Water-type Ivy Cudgel does 0 damage. I must use a different move.
    
    Knock Off is the best option here to deal damage and remove the item.
    
    Deciding factor: bad matchup (Water-type move vs Water Absorb).
  16. Turn 15
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,503 tok · 7.2 s

    My Ogerpon is faster than the opponent's Ogerpon-Wellspring. Ivy Cudgel deals the most damage and is the most efficient way to secure a knockout or heavy pressure.

    Reasoning trace (92 words)
    The active Pokémon are two Ogerpon-Wellspring. My Ogerpon is at 100% HP, and the opponent's is at 66%. My Ogerpon is faster (SPE 350 vs base 110).
    
    Deciding factor: speed and likely knockout. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest move and should deal significant damage, potentially knocking out the opponent's Ogerpon or leaving it in range for a follow-up.
    
    Wait, Ogerpon-Wellspring is Grass/Water. Ivy Cudgel (Grass) is resisted by other Grass types, but Ogerpon-Wellspring is not a Grass-type resist (it's Grass/Water, so Grass is neutral).
    
    Ivy Cudgel is the best offensive option here.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Playroughtera2,478 tok · 11.1 s · $0.0003

    Mirror Wellspring: both Ivy Cudgel are Water-type and immune via Water Absorb, so Play Rough is the only damaging option. Tera to maximize damage in the speed-tie.

    Reasoning trace (21 words)
    Analyzing type matchups and abilities to determine Ivy Cudgel immunity and recommending Play Rough due to speed tie and HP disadvantage.
  17. Turn 16
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,470 tok · 4.5 s

    Opposing Ogerpon is at 5% HP and I have a significant speed advantage. Any attacking move will secure the knockout.

    Reasoning trace (45 words)
    The opposing Ogerpon-Wellspring is at 5% HP. My Ogerpon-Wellspring is faster (350 vs 110 base speed, though the opponent has +1 SPD, not speed). Any attacking move will knock it out. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest and most reliable option here.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Great2,251 tok · 7.4 s · $0.0003

    Ogerpon is at 4% and will die to any attack, so I must switch out to a healthy matchup.

    Reasoning trace (16 words)
    Analyzing a Pokemon speed tie and type matchup to choose a safe switch to Great Tusk.
  18. Turn 17
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,556 tok · 4.5 s

    Opposing Great Tusk is at 12% HP and Ogerpon is significantly faster. Ivy Cudgel will easily secure the knockout.

    Reasoning trace (47 words)
    Opposing Great Tusk is at 12% HP. Ogerpon-Wellspring is active and has a significant speed advantage (350 vs Great Tusk's base 87). Any attacking move from Ogerpon will likely knock out Great Tusk. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest and most reliable option here.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gliscor2,255 tok · 6.7 s · $0.0003

    Great Tusk at 11% will die to super-effective Ivy Cudgel and is a bad matchup, so switch to Gliscor to absorb the hit.

    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Gholdengo2,212 tok · 5.1 s · $0.0002

    Ogerpon's Ivy Cudgel KOs both Great Tusk and Ogerpon, but Gholdengo resists Grass and can survive to attack.

  19. Turn 18
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,611 tok · 5.8 s

    Gholdengo is at 10% HP, and any of Ogerpon's attacks will secure the knockout. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest option.

    Reasoning trace (67 words)
    The opponent's Gholdengo is at 10% HP. Ogerpon-Wellspring is active and has several attacking moves. Gholdengo is Steel/Ghost, and Ogerpon's Grass moves (Ivy Cudgel, Horn Leech) are not very effective. However, Gholdengo's HP is so low that almost any attack should knock it out.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout. Gholdengo is at 10% HP; any of Ogerpon's attacks will secure the KO. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest move.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Makeitrain2,381 tok · 8.3 s · $0.0003

    Gholdengo is slower than Wellspring Ogerpon and at 9.8% will faint to Ivy Cudgel, so deal max damage before going down.

    Reasoning trace (21 words)
    Comparing Gholdengo and Ogerpon speeds and damage to determine if Gholdengo survives Ivy Cudgel and if Make it Rain is viable.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Ogerpon2,525 tok · 11.3 s · $0.0003

    Our Tera Water Ogerpon resists opposing Water-type Ivy Cudgel, while Great Tusk is weak to it and will die for free. Staying resistant gives a chance to attack.

    Reasoning trace (20 words)
    Evaluating battle options and damage calculations to choose between switching to Ogerpon or Great Tusk given speed and HP constraints.
  20. Turn 19
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,579 tok · 5.1 s

    Opposing Ogerpon is Tera-Water with only 5% HP. My Ogerpon is faster and Ivy Cudgel is super effective, ensuring a knockout.

    Reasoning trace (49 words)
    The opponent's Ogerpon-Wellspring is Tera-Water and has only 5% HP remaining. My Ogerpon-Wellspring is faster (350 vs 110 base speed, though the opponent has +1 SPD, not speed). Any attacking move will likely knock it out. Ivy Cudgel (Grass) is super effective against Water.
    
    Deciding factor: a likely knockout.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Playrough2,328 tok · 7.8 s · $0.0003

    Both Ogerpon are same speed so this is a speed tie, and my Tera Water Grass moves are resisted. Play Rough is the only neutral hit for best KO chance.

    Reasoning trace (16 words)
    Evaluating damage and speed tie risk for Ogerpon at 4% HP versus a likely faster opponent.
    Muse Spark 1.3 switched to Great1,992 tok · 2.1 s · $0.0002

    Only Great Tusk remains at 11% HP, so I must send it out despite the bad matchup against opposing Ogerpon.

  21. Turn 20
    Gemma 4 31B used Ivycudgel2,531 tok · 3.8 s

    Opposing Great Tusk is at 12% HP, and Ivy Cudgel will easily secure the knockout.

    Reasoning trace (40 words)
    The opponent's Great Tusk is at 12% HP. My Ogerpon-Wellspring is active and has several moves that will easily knock out a Great Tusk at 12% HP. Ivy Cudgel is the strongest and most reliable option.
    
    Deciding factor: likely knockout.
    Muse Spark 1.3 used Icespinner2,384 tok · 38.4 s · $0.0003

    I'm slower and weak to Ivy Cudgel so I'll likely be knocked out, so Ice Spinner deals the most damage before fainting.

    Reasoning trace (16 words)
    Analyzing Pokémon type matchups and speed to evaluate damage and turn order for the battle decision.